commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania is entering the Monday morning demand ramp at 1,088.8 MW with spot at $96.76/MWh at 16:30 AEST. Demand has climbed sharply from the overnight trough of around 720 MW (midday AEST) and has been accelerating through the pre-dawn hours — rising from 926 MW at 15:00 AEST to the current level, a gain of over 160 MW in roughly 90 minutes. Pricing has tracked this ramp with near-perfect stability, holding in a tight $96.19–$96.76/MWh band throughout the ascent, reflecting hydro's flexibility in absorbing load growth without requiring higher-cost marginal plant.

The price-demand relationship today is notably compressed. Earlier in the cycle, demand in the 720–760 MW range (around 22:00–23:00 AEST) still priced at $96.19/MWh — identical to current levels despite demand being 330 MW lower. This reflects Tasmania's hydro-dominant dispatch stack, where the marginal cost curve is relatively flat across a wide demand range. The one notable exception was a brief spike to $156.10/MWh at 01:45 AEST when demand hit 890 MW on the afternoon climb — an isolated dispatch event that resolved within a single interval, indicating tight but manageable headroom at that demand level.

With demand at 1,088.8 MW and still rising into the weekday morning peak, the key watch is whether load clears 1,100 MW. The history from the price dataset shows demand reached a session high around 1,056 MW during the prior evening peak before easing. Today's Monday commercial load adds incremental demand above weekend levels, and at 10.7°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 7.3, residential heating will sustain load through the morning. Gas OCGT is sitting at 0 MW with hydro carrying 476 MW of the 1,088.8 MW load — the balance is being met via Basslink import. If demand pushes materially above 1,100 MW, watch for the dispatch stack to tighten and price to step toward the $106–$114/MWh range seen during yesterday's afternoon ramp.