Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables — entirely hydro and wind, as it has been all day. South Australia is the next cleanest at 0.32 tCO2/MWh with renewables at 40%, a mix of 225 MW wind and 355 MW gas CCGT providing the bulk of supply. Both regions are the clear standouts for carbon-sensitive scheduling right now.

NSW and Queensland are the grid's carbon heavyweights this morning. NSW sits at 0.79 tCO2/MWh with renewables covering just 9.7% of load — nearly 6,000 MW of black coal dominates the stack, with solar (79 MW) and wind (72 MW) making minimal impact at this pre-dawn hour. Queensland is marginally worse at 0.86 tCO2/MWh, with 3,034 MW of black coal carrying 97% of supply and renewables essentially absent at 2.7%. Victoria is at 0.85 tCO2/MWh, driven by 2,185 MW of brown coal, though 450 MW of wind is providing 28% penetration — the best renewable contribution outside SA and TAS among the coal-heavy regions.

The day's green windows are clearly tied to solar ramp-up. SA's intensity dipped as low as 0.05 tCO2/MWh overnight on near-90% renewables but has drifted higher as wind has eased and gas is filling more of the load. NSW and QLD will see their best carbon performance between roughly 09:00 and 15:00 AEST as rooftop and utility solar ramps — the data from the past 24 hours shows NSW intensity troughing around 0.74 tCO2/MWh and QLD around 0.75 tCO2/MWh through the solar peak window. Both revert sharply toward 0.84–0.86 tCO2/MWh after 17:00 as solar drops off and coal reasserts.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling: TAS is viable around the clock. SA is best pre-dawn and through the morning wind peak; watch for the midday gas displacement risk that pushed SA intensity above 0.40 tCO2/MWh in the 12:00–13:00 window in recent days. In NSW and QLD, target the 10:00–15:00 AEST solar window for any shiftable industrial or battery charging loads, and avoid the 06:00–08:30 and post-17:00 periods when intensity peaks above 0.85 tCO2/MWh.