regional qld — QLD1

The Queensland spot price sits at -$4.86/MWh as of 06:15 AEST, deep in negative territory for the third consecutive hour as solar generation ramps into a Sunday morning with demand tracking at just 5,418 MW — well below the ~7,000–7,500 MW peak seen during yesterday evening's demand surge. This negative pricing pattern is consistent with the mid-morning solar oversupply window observed across the past 24 hours, where prices collapsed from ~$53–65/MWh overnight into zero or negative territory from approximately 05:00 AEST onward. The 24-hour price trend tells a clear two-regime story: a firm $50–65/MWh baseload band through the overnight and evening periods, followed by a sustained negative-to-zero window through the solar peak hours.

The current generation mix is heavily coal-dominated. Black coal is supplying 1,869.5 MW, solar is contributing 181.84 MW (and still ramping with the sun), hydro is providing 71.93 MW, and gas OCGT sits at a negligible 0.19 MW. Total accounted generation is approximately 2,123 MW against a demand read of 5,418 MW, suggesting significant additional coal and potentially gas CCGT capacity not captured in the current generation snapshot. Renewable penetration sits at just 3.02% on the latest carbon intensity read — that figure reflects the overnight coal-heavy dispatch position and will rise materially as solar output peaks through mid-morning. Carbon intensity currently stands at 0.8534 tCO2/MWh, essentially flat against the overnight baseline of ~0.853–0.855 tCO2/MWh. For context, the cleanest period in the past 24 hours was ~09:00–09:30 AEST yesterday when intensity dipped to 0.710–0.719 tCO2/MWh and renewables hit ~19% penetration — that window is expected to repeat today as solar output builds toward its midday peak.

No predispatch forecasts or market notices are loaded in the current dataset, so forward price trajectory is inferred from the structural pattern. Expect prices to remain negative or near zero through approximately 08:00–14:00 AEST as rooftop and utility solar peaks under 66% cloud cover — with solar potential scored at just 7.9/10, the depth of negative pricing may be somewhat shallower than a clear-sky Sunday. The afternoon demand recovery should begin lifting prices back through $25–50/MWh from around 14:00–15:00 AEST, with the familiar evening ramp to $53–65/MWh expected from 16:00 AEST onward as solar drops off and residential load climbs. Grid stress is scored at 63/100, reflecting the coal-heavy, low-flexibility dispatch stack struggling to respond cleanly to the solar oversupply cycle. Sunday demand profiles reduce the likelihood of any spike above $70/MWh this evening unless there is an unexpected unit trip or a faster-than-forecast load recovery.