NEM Overview

Spot prices are negative across four of five NEM regions this Sunday morning, with NSW at -$4.88/MWh, VIC at -$4.75/MWh, SA at -$4.95/MWh, and QLD at -$4.86/MWh as of 6:15 PM AEST. Tasmania is the stark outlier at $99.07/MWh — a spread of over $100/MWh against the mainland — driven by the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) running at -220.8 MW and the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector binding at its export limit of 169.88 MW, effectively capping flows out of the island. The N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector between NSW and QLD is also binding at -148.2 MW, though the price differential between those two regions remains negligible.

Coal is carrying the mainland this morning. NSW demand sits at 5,599 MW with black coal supplying 3,212 MW — over 57% of regional output — while solar contributes just 259 MW and wind a negligible 37 MW against near-zero wind speed of 2.9 km/h. VIC demand is 3,722 MW, with brown coal at 1,340 MW doing the heavy lifting alongside 353 MW of wind; gas OCGT is running at 99.8 MW, unusual for a mild Sunday morning at 14.2°C with modest heating demand. QLD demand at 5,419 MW is dominated by 1,870 MW of black coal, with solar at only 182 MW despite moderate cloud cover of 66%. NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at just 19.5% — well below potential — reflecting low solar output early in the trading day and weak wind across NSW and VIC.

SA is the renewable standout, running at 88.5% renewable penetration with 313 MW of wind covering the bulk of its 995 MW demand, though 91% cloud cover is wiping out solar entirely and 80 MW of gas CCGT is providing system support. Tasmania is 100% renewable at 385 MW total output — 349 MW hydro and 36 MW wind — but that premium is being priced in at $99.07/MWh given constrained export capacity. The grid stress score of 63 reflects the interconnector binding events and regional price separation rather than any demand-side pressure; no market notices are active.

As solar ramps through the morning and demand stays subdued on this Sunday, negative prices across the mainland are likely to persist and potentially deepen into the midday window. Traders should watch the Basslink flow direction and Tasmania's price closely — any easing of the V-S-MNSP1 binding constraint could collapse that spread rapidly. Carbon intensity in VIC at 1.017 tCO2/MWh remains the worst in the NEM given brown coal baseload; sustainability managers with VIC exposure should note conditions are unfavourable for clean procurement until wind strengthens this afternoon.