Interconnector Watch

Four of the NEM's six monitored interconnectors are carrying meaningful flows at 18:20 AEST, with two binding and driving a sharp Tasmania-mainland price split that defines the market right now.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is exporting 209.2 MW from Tasmania into Victoria, running well within its import limit of 406.9 MW and not binding. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is binding hard at its full 168.85 MW export limit from Victoria into South Australia — both import and export limits sit at 168.85 MW, meaning the link is fully saturated in both directions and cannot move more power. Heywood (V-SA) is flowing 230.9 MW from Victoria into South Australia and remains unbound, with 36.1 MW of headroom to its 266.97 MW export limit — meaningful but not tight. The combined 399.75 MW of Victorian power pushing into SA is notable given SA demand sits at just 972.59 MW, pointing to heavy renewable oversupply suppressing SA prices to -$4.42/MWh, the weakest in the NEM today.

On the northern spine, QNI (NSW1-QLD1) is flowing 112.89 MW from Queensland into NSW, well clear of its 421.59 MW import limit and not binding. VIC-NSW is carrying 80.58 MW northward from Victoria into NSW and is technically at its export limit of -80.58 MW — worth watching as any increase in Victorian renewable output could push this into a binding constraint. Despite these flows, NSW and Victoria are both printing near-identical negative prices (-$4.22/MWh and -$4.26/MWh respectively), and QLD is at -$4.17/MWh, confirming interconnectors are broadly equalising mainland prices under widespread renewable oversupply with no constraint notices active.

Tasmania is the clear outlier at $99.57/MWh — a $103.99/MWh premium over Victoria — driven by the Murraylink binding constraint and Basslink flowing export at 209.2 MW rather than import. Tasmania is a net exporter to the mainland right now, and with no cheap mainland power flowing back, Tasmanian hydro is setting price locally without competitive pressure. The N-Q-MNSP1 interconnector is binding at its import limit of -147.7 MW; this is the Directlink flow from NSW into Queensland, fully utilised and capping the arbitrage opportunity between those two near-identical markets.