commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania spot price sits at 99.57 $/MWh with demand at 920 MW as of 18:20 AEST — a notable step down from the morning peak of ~981 MW at 17:15 AEST, which briefly pushed prices to 103.30 $/MWh. The demand-price relationship today is tight: the market has been operating in a sustained elevated price band of 96–107 $/MWh through most of the day, reflecting a dispatch stack that is price-sensitive at current load levels. The brief mid-morning trough — demand dropping to ~712 MW around 23:20 AEST yesterday and prices falling to the 50–67 $/MWh range — confirms that the marginal price tier cuts in sharply somewhere above 850 MW, and today's demand profile has spent the bulk of the morning well above that threshold.
The morning ramp this Sunday has tracked a familiar pattern: demand climbed from ~852 MW at 11:00 AEST to the current 920 MW, with prices responding upward from the low-to-mid 80s $/MWh toward the high 90s. The 17:15 AEST interval saw the sharpest price spike of the morning at 103.30 $/MWh coinciding with demand at 979 MW, signalling that the ~970–980 MW zone is where marginal supply becomes genuinely scarce. Being a Sunday, demand is unlikely to push toward the weekday highs seen in the evening peak band of 1,010–1,030 MW recorded earlier in the dataset, but a late-afternoon heating-driven rise remains plausible given 12.3°C conditions and a heating demand index of 5.7.
With no forecast data or market notices available, the price outlook for the remainder of today hinges on how far the afternoon demand rebuild goes. If load stays below 950 MW, expect prices to consolidate in the 96–100 $/MWh range. A push toward 980+ MW — consistent with the morning peak pattern — reopens the 103–107 $/MWh band. Hydro at 349 MW and wind at 36 MW are covering current load entirely at 0 tCO2/MWh, and with gas OCGT sitting at zero output, there is no thermal backstop currently online; any demand surge requiring additional dispatch could require either hydro ramping or interconnector support, both of which carry price risk at the margin.