Carbon Forecast

Tasmania is running at 0.00 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewables — hydro (349 MW) and wind (36 MW) carrying the entire load. South Australia sits at 0.057 tCO2/MWh with 88% renewable penetration, all wind (313 MW) and gas CCGT (80 MW) filling the balance. These two regions are the cleanest on the NEM by a wide margin and represent the best options for carbon-sensitive scheduling right now.

NSW and Queensland are coal-heavy and near the opposite end of the spectrum. NSW is at 0.797 tCO2/MWh with black coal (3,212 MW) dominating and renewables contributing just 9.5% — wind at 37 MW and solar at 259 MW are negligible against the coal baseload. Queensland is at 0.853 tCO2/MWh, the dirtiest region on the NEM, with 1,870 MW of black coal and only 3% renewable penetration despite 182 MW of solar already dispatched. Victoria is the worst performer on intensity at 1.017 tCO2/MWh — brown coal (1,340 MW) is dominating, renewables sit at just 15%, and gas OCGT (100 MW) is adding further emissions on top.

Today's green windows in SA tracked through the overnight data confirm wind was holding above 94% renewable share from midnight through to around 08:00 AEST, before solar export and demand shifts caused some softening. The pattern through today's daylight hours shows SA's renewable share trending back upward as wind holds strong. Tasmania maintains its clean profile all day with no thermal generation in the data at any interval. For NSW and QLD, the solar ramp through mid-morning (07:00–09:30 AEST) pushed renewable penetration to 17% in NSW and ~19% in QLD — the cleanest those grids get during this period — before coal reasserted as solar faded into the afternoon.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling today: Tasmania and SA are viable all day. If you must operate in NSW or QLD, the window between 07:30 and 10:00 AEST offers the lowest intensity of the day in those regions, with NSW intensity dropping as low as 0.727 tCO2/MWh and QLD to 0.710 tCO2/MWh during solar peak. Avoid NSW, QLD, and VIC in the post-sunset period — all three regions see intensity climb sharply once solar drops off, with VIC regularly exceeding 1.10 tCO2/MWh in the 12:00–15:00 AEST window based on today's trend data.