regional vic — VIC1
Victoria spot price sits at $10.22/MWh at 16:30 AEST, well below the 24-hour average which tracked in the $15–$22/MWh range through yesterday's evening peak and this morning's pre-dawn period. The past 24 hours showed a pronounced negative price episode from roughly 17:00–01:00 AEST, with prices bottoming at -$52.25/MWh during the solar/wind oversupply window midday Friday — a clear sign of excess generation against subdued Saturday demand. Demand at the current interval is 4,741 MW, down from a Friday evening peak above 5,500 MW.
The current generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 1,619 MW, followed by gas OCGT at 98.71 MW, wind at 439.19 MW, and hydro at 43.66 MW. Solar is at zero, consistent with pre-dawn settlement time. Total dispatchable output sits around 2,200 MW with the balance sourced from interconnector flows. Renewable penetration is 34.52% as of the latest carbon interval, driven entirely by wind and hydro at this hour. Carbon intensity is 0.778 tCO2/MWh — elevated relative to the overnight low of 0.697 tCO2/MWh recorded around 12:00 AEST Friday when wind contribution was stronger, and consistent with brown coal carrying the baseload overnight.
Forward price signals from the available predispatch data point to a $12.71–$19.18/MWh range through the coming morning period, with no material spike risk flagged. Saturday demand profiles typically suppress the morning ramp, and the forecast data shows no step-change in price trajectory. Grid stress is scored at 64/100 and price stability at 34/100, reflecting the high volatility seen across the prior 24-hour window rather than current conditions. Renewable penetration score of 20.8 underscores brown coal's continued dominance of the dispatch stack at this hour.
No active market notices are recorded for VIC1. The optimal load window through today sits from approximately 11:00–12:30 AEST when solar generation will ramp and prices are forecast to return negative or near-zero, consistent with yesterday's pattern. Flexibility assets and demand response with daytime optionality should plan exposure accordingly.