regional tas — TAS1
Tasmania is running at $96.14/MWh as of 16:30 AEST, sitting at the top of its recent range and locked there for the past several intervals. Over the prior 24 hours, prices oscillated sharply — from near-zero ($0.02/MWh at 22:40 AEST yesterday) through a midday solar-driven trough in the $17–38/MWh band, before climbing back through the $88–$106/MWh range during the evening peak. The 24-hour average sits around $80–82/MWh, so the current price is running approximately 17% above that mean. Demand is 990 MW and rising, up from an overnight trough of around 755 MW.
Generation mix at 16:30 AEST is entirely renewable: hydro at 314 MW and wind at 62 MW, with gas OCGT offline at 0 MW. Total dispatched generation from metered plant is 376 MW, with the balance of demand (~614 MW) implied to be met via Basslink imports from Victoria — a significant dependency that explains the price behaviour. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration is 100%, consistent across the full 48-hour history with no gas dispatch recorded.
Predispatch forecasts are pointing to $96.14/MWh holding through the current trading window, with earlier PASA runs having converged on this level from an initial $94.30–$94.56/MWh estimate. No uplift toward cap pricing is signalled, but the $106.06/MWh prints seen during yesterday evening's peak (19:35–20:00 AEST) are a reminder that marginal Basslink flows can push prices above the standard hydro floor when Victorian conditions tighten. No active market notices are in place for TAS1.
Grid stress is scored at 64/100 and price stability at 34/100, reflecting the region's structural reliance on interconnector flows. With heating demand at 9.5 units and temperature at 8.5°C, demand will continue climbing through the morning. Flexible load operators should note the $88.14/MWh load window flagged for the overnight period — a modest saving against today's peak but the best available window given the flat overnight price profile. The absence of any OCGT dispatch and the 100% renewable stack make TAS1 the cleanest region in the NEM right now by a significant margin.