regional qld — QLD1
$52.74/MWh at 16:30 AEST — Queensland is trading near a 48-hour floor, well below the elevated levels seen Thursday evening when prices repeatedly spiked above $100/MWh between 06:30–11:30 AEST during the morning demand peak. Demand has fallen sharply from Thursday's peak of ~8,450 MW to 6,101 MW now, consistent with a Saturday low-load profile. The 24-hour trajectory shows a clear price compression: from $70–75/MWh through the late evening to sub-$55/MWh post-midnight, with brief mid-range excursions in the $100+ band now absent.
Generation at 16:30 AEST is dominated by black coal at 2,550.8 MW, with hydro contributing 85.85 MW and solar a negligible 9.23 MW — sunrise is just underway. Gas OCGT output is effectively zero at 0.19 MW. Renewable penetration stands at just 2.72%, which is the pre-solar floor for QLD1 and reflects overnight conditions. Carbon intensity is 0.856 tCO2/MWh, essentially the coal-dispatch baseline. Carbon history shows intensity improved markedly during daylight hours Friday — peaking renewable contribution at ~19% and intensity falling to 0.713 tCO2/MWh around 19:30–20:00 AEST — before reverting to the overnight coal floor by 04:30 AEST.
Predispatch forecasts point to continued softness today, with forecast prices anchored in the $53–$55/MWh range through the early morning and load window signals rated "good" quality for the 11:00–12:30 AEST window (prices forecast ~$35–$44/MWh) as rooftop and utility solar ramps. This is a significant intraday spread opportunity — Saturday demand will suppress any meaningful evening ramp, and the predispatch curve shows no price recovery signal above $55/MWh in the near term. No market notices are active for QLD1.
Grid stress score sits at 64/100 with price stability at 34/100, both reflecting the volatile Thursday-to-Friday transition now washing out. Sustainability managers should note that the optimal load window for minimising carbon exposure today is the 09:00–14:00 AEST solar window, where intensity is likely to drop back toward 0.71–0.73 tCO2/MWh and prices may dip below $35/MWh.