NEM Overview

Tasmania is the standout at 96.14 $/MWh at 16:30 AEST, sitting well above the mainland with the Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) exporting 125 MW into Victoria at its export limit — a binding constraint that is effectively capping flows and supporting that price premium. At the other end of the spectrum, SA cleared at just 8.70 $/MWh and VIC at 10.22 $/MWh, driven by strong wind output — SA wind alone contributed 764.95 MW against a total demand of 1,268.79 MW, pushing SA renewable penetration to 95.75% and carbon intensity to a near-zero 0.0208 tCO2/MWh. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is the only binding constraint on the mainland, exporting 820.23 MW north into NSW at its export limit, compressing the VIC-NSW spread to 46.76 $/MWh (NSW: 56.98, VIC: 10.22).

NSW and QLD are the price leaders on the mainland at 56.98 and 52.74 $/MWh respectively, both heavily coal-dependent. NSW black coal is carrying 4,063.20 MW with wind and solar contributing just 380.59 MW combined — a renewable share of 11.95% and carbon intensity of 0.7749 tCO2/MWh. QLD is worse: black coal at 2,550.80 MW, solar negligible at 9.23 MW given 84% cloud cover, and renewable penetration at just 2.72% with intensity at 0.856 tCO2/MWh — the dirtiest region on the grid this interval. The NSW-QLD interconnector is moving 493 MW southbound from QLD into NSW, well within its 808.91 MW import limit.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 20.8%, well below potential given pre-dawn conditions across all regions — solar is zero everywhere. Grid stress is elevated at 64/100, consistent with the binding VIC-NSW interconnector and the price divergence between the southern low-price pocket (VIC, SA) and the northern thermal-backed regions. Price stability scores 34/100, reflecting the wide interregional spread. Tasmania's 100% renewable, zero-carbon dispatch is entirely hydro (314.19 MW) and wind (61.89 MW), with 8.5°C temperatures and a heating demand index of 9.5 keeping local load firm. No market notices are active this interval.