commodity demand tas — TAS1

Tasmania is entering the morning demand ramp at 990 MW and $96.14/MWh as of 16:30 AEST, with demand rising steadily from a low of around 755 MW and sub-$1/MWh prices during the midday solar/hydro surplus window (22:40–22:45 UTC, or roughly 08:40–08:45 AEST). That midday trough, where spot briefly touched near-zero, has passed — the current trajectory shows demand climbing ~35 MW in the last 25 minutes alone, consistent with the late-afternoon heating demand build on an 8.5°C day with a 9.5 heating degree load.

The demand-price relationship in today's data is tight. Below 800 MW, prices were consistently in the $20–$60/MWh range. Above 880 MW, the market locks into the $88–$96/MWh band almost without exception, reflecting the step structure of Tasmanian hydro dispatch — once low-cost units are fully loaded, the next tranche prices in at a firm floor around $88.14/MWh. The $96.14/MWh cap-like ceiling has appeared repeatedly through the morning peak (demand 1,050–1,106 MW) and is recurring now as demand crosses 990 MW again.

Yesterday's morning peak hit 1,106 MW at 16:50–16:55 AEST, driving sustained $96.14/MWh pricing for several hours. With today's demand trajectory tracking similarly — demand was 958 MW at 16:10 and 990 MW at 16:30, a rate of roughly 16 MW per 10 minutes — a crossing of the 1,000 MW threshold is imminent. Prices should hold at $96.14/MWh through the morning peak, with brief excursions to $106/MWh possible if demand overshoots the 1,030–1,040 MW band seen in last evening's peak (where $106.06/MWh cleared on multiple intervals). The $113.72/MWh print at 15:20 AEST this morning at 933 MW demand signals residual volatility risk even at moderate demand levels, likely reflecting a short-duration dispatch constraint rather than sustained supply tightness.

Generation is currently 314 MW hydro and 62 MW wind against 990 MW demand, with the balance covered by Basslink import. GAS_OCGT is offline. With 100% renewable intensity and no gas backstop in service, any unexpected Basslink constraint or demand spike above 1,050 MW would pressure the hydro stack and could push prices toward the $106/MWh level seen yesterday evening. Traders should watch demand crossing 1,020 MW as the likely trigger for the next price step. Saturday demand profiles typically soften relative to weekday peaks, which may cap the morning peak below yesterday's 1,106 MW — but the heating load signature at this temperature is persistent and the afternoon cool-down in Tasmania is likely to sustain demand above 950 MW through at least 20:00 AEST.