commodity demand sa — SA1
SA1 spot is $8.70/MWh at 16:30 AEST with demand at 1,269 MW — well below the 1,549 MW peak recorded at 06:45 AEST on 13 March (Thursday). That Thursday evening peak drove prices into the $20–$30/MWh range, with a high of $30.29/MWh at 06:35 AEST as demand climbed through 1,500 MW. The contrast is immediate: today being Saturday, the morning demand profile is running roughly 200–280 MW lighter than Thursday's equivalent window, and that demand differential is the primary explanation for the current benign price.
The most striking demand-price dynamic in the recent history occurred through Thursday's solar hours (roughly 09:00–16:00 AEST), when net demand collapsed to an extraordinary low of 118 MW at 23:35 UTC (09:35 AEST local) as rooftop and utility solar overwhelmed underlying load. Prices hit -$320/MWh at that interval. Wind is currently supplying 765 MW against just 40 MW of gas CCGT with no OCGT or solar dispatch, confirming the grid remains renewables-dominated at this pre-dawn Saturday load level. Carbon intensity sits at 0.0208 tCO2/MWh with 95.75% renewable penetration.
Today's demand trajectory will follow a typical Saturday light-load pattern. Expect demand to trough through the solar window — likely dropping below 500 MW again in the 10:00–14:00 AEST range — with prices returning to deeply negative territory as wind and solar generation exceed net load. The evening ramp from approximately 17:30–20:00 AEST is the key price risk window: on Thursday that ramp from ~1,260 MW to 1,580 MW produced sustained prices of $17–$30/MWh. A Saturday evening equivalent ramp will be shallower given lower commercial and industrial load, but wind output and interstate interconnector flows will determine whether prices lift above $20/MWh. Forecasts carry an indicative RRP of ~$18–19/MWh for the evening period, consistent with that scenario.
There are no active market notices for SA1. With grid stress scored at 64 and price stability at 34, the dominant risk today is not tight supply but oversupply-driven negative pricing mid-morning — relevant for scheduled loads, battery operators, and any flexible industrial demand that can absorb energy through the solar trough.