commodity demand qld — QLD1
Queensland spot price sits at $52.74/MWh at 16:30 AEST with demand at 6,101 MW — a Saturday morning trough that is running roughly 2,100 MW below the peak levels recorded during yesterday's evening period. The demand-price relationship over the past 36 hours is clear: when load climbed to 8,450 MW during Thursday evening's peak (around 04:30–06:30 AEST Friday), prices held in the $71–$75/MWh band, underpinned by coal dispatch at 2,550 MW carrying the baseload. The sharp price compression to the low $50s and sub-$45/MWh territory observed through the solar window (18:00–22:00 AEST Friday, corresponding to ~6,000–6,200 MW demand) confirms strong merit order suppression when load is light and rooftop solar is contributing.
The overnight demand trough bottomed near 5,880 MW between 13:00–15:00 AEST this morning, driving prices into the $35–$44/MWh range — consistent with baseload coal setting the marginal price with minimal peaker dispatch required. Demand has since recovered to 6,101 MW and is on a gentle upward trajectory typical of a Saturday morning load build. The absence of any market notices removes demand-side management signals from the equation today.
The Saturday demand profile points to a moderate afternoon peak in the 7,500–8,000 MW range — materially softer than the weekday evening peaks above 8,400 MW seen on Friday. Based on Thursday's price sensitivity, that demand level should produce spot prices in the $55–$75/MWh corridor through the afternoon, with the evening ramp (post-18:00 AEST) the most likely window for prices to test the $70–$80/MWh range as solar fades and coal and gas OCGTs pick up the load. Carbon intensity will track higher with that shift, already sitting at 0.856 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 2.72% — solar's intraday contribution will briefly compress both intensity and price around the midday period before the evening reversion.
The key price risk today is a demand surprise to the upside driven by residual late-summer cooling load — at 21.3°C with 84% cloud cover, that risk is low. The forecast price signal in the $53–$55/MWh range through the early morning load windows aligns with the current spot trajectory and does not flag any material deviation from a subdued Saturday pattern.