commodity demand nsw — NSW1
NSW spot is sitting at $56.98/MWh with demand at 6,756 MW as of 16:30 AEST — a Saturday morning trough that is running roughly 1,800 MW below the weekday evening peaks recorded earlier this week. The demand-price relationship over the past 48 hours is clear: when load pushed above 8,200 MW on Thursday evening, prices clustered between $85–$100/MWh with multiple intervals touching the $100.01/MWh cap. At current Saturday demand, black coal at 4,063 MW is carrying the bulk of the load with gas CCGT and OCGT both sitting at zero, confirming the grid is comfortably supplied without peaking plant.
Demand is on a modest upward trajectory through the morning — load has climbed from a low near 6,230 MW around 12:00 AEST to 6,756 MW now, consistent with a typical Saturday residential ramp. Solar at only 145 MW and 68% cloud cover means rooftop generation is not providing meaningful demand suppression today, unlike the midday periods seen yesterday where prices dipped to negative territory on the back of excess supply. Wind at 236 MW is also negligible. The Saturday demand profile does not support a return to the 8,000+ MW levels seen Thursday; weekend residential patterns typically peak in the low-to-mid 7,000 MW range, which at current supply stack depth should keep prices anchored in the $55–$80/MWh band through the afternoon.
The price risk window is the late afternoon into early evening, roughly 17:00–20:00 AEST, when cooling and cooking load converges with solar rolloff. Yesterday's equivalent period saw demand touch 8,200 MW with prices holding at $66.15/MWh — suppressed by what appears to have been a consistently dispatched baseload stack. Today's lower weekend baseline reduces the probability of that demand level being reached, but a temperature-driven deviation upward from the 14.5°C currently observed, combined with heating demand of 3.5, could tighten the stack if demand overshoots forecasts into the 7,500 MW range. No market notices are active. Carbon intensity at 0.7749 tCO2/MWh reflects the coal-heavy weekend mix, with renewables at just 11.95% penetration.