Carbon Forecast

At 06:30 AEST, the NEM's carbon intensity split is extreme. SA1 is the cleanest region on the grid at 0.02 tCO2/MWh with 95.75% renewable penetration, driven entirely by 765 MW of wind with gas OCGT offline. TAS1 is zero-emissions at 100% renewables — 314 MW hydro and 62 MW wind carrying the full load. VIC1 sits at 0.78 tCO2/MWh (34.52% renewables), with 1,619 MW of brown coal dominating output and only 439 MW of wind providing meaningful clean firming. NSW1 is at 0.77 tCO2/MWh with just 11.95% renewables — 4,063 MW of black coal is doing the heavy lifting, with 236 MW wind and 145 MW solar making only a marginal dent. QLD1 is the dirtiest region at 0.86 tCO2/MWh with 2.9% renewable penetration — 2,551 MW of black coal and effectively no solar or wind contributing at this hour.

Yesterday's data traces the day's emissions arc. NSW1 and QLD1 hit their overnight peak intensity (0.845–0.856 tCO2/MWh) between 01:00–07:00 AEST, then improved as solar ramped from 07:30 onward, with NSW1 bottoming at 0.765 tCO2/MWh around 09:30–10:00 AEST and QLD1 reaching its daily low of 0.713 tCO2/MWh at 09:30 AEST. Both regions then degraded through the afternoon as solar output fell, QLD1 returning to its 0.856 tCO2/MWh coal-floor by 18:30. SA1 showed the sharpest intraday swing, spiking to 0.19 tCO2/MWh at 01:00 AEST (61% renewables) as demand exceeded wind supply, before recovering to sub-0.025 tCO2/MWh through the evening wind surge. VIC1's intensity peaked at 0.94 tCO2/MWh at 00:30 AEST — brown coal plus OCGT gas firming against constrained wind — before recovering modestly through midday.

Today's green windows follow the same pattern. For SA1, the current clean window is already active and should persist through the morning as overnight wind holds. SA1 will face its worst window mid-afternoon (roughly 00:30–01:30 AEST yesterday saw 0.17–0.19 tCO2/MWh), so schedule carbon-sensitive loads now or post-17:00 AEST when evening wind ramps. TAS1 is a firm all-day green window — schedule freely. NSW1 and QLD1 solar ramp will open a cleaner window from approximately 08:00–14:00 AEST, with intensity expected to dip toward 0.76–0.72 tCO2/MWh respectively; outside those hours, both regions are essentially coal-floor. VIC1's best window will be mid-morning around 10:00–11:30 AEST when wind contributes ~35% and intensity could drop