regional vic — VIC1

Victoria's spot price is sitting at $22.05/MWh at 16:30 AEST, demand at 5,479 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. That's materially above the overnight trough — prices dipped into negative territory repeatedly between roughly 18:00 and 03:00 AEST (bottoming at -$38.67/MWh at 22:20 AEST yesterday during peak solar/wind oversupply), before recovering sharply through the pre-dawn period with multiple intervals touching $31.69/MWh. The 24-hour price profile is classic duck curve: deep negatives mid-day driven by renewable oversupply, then a hard step-up into the morning peak. Current pricing reflects demand now exceeding 5,400 MW with solar output negligible at just 0.1 MW at this hour.

The generation mix at 16:30 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 1,930 MW (~68% of local output), wind at 815 MW (~29%), gas OCGT at 99 MW (~3%), and hydro at 44 MW (~2%). CCGT is offline at 0 MW. Renewable penetration is 39.25% per the latest carbon reading, a marked improvement from the 25–27% registered during this morning's pre-dawn peak demand period when wind was lower and brown coal carried the load. Carbon intensity has eased to 0.7411 tCO2/MWh from a session high of 0.8973 tCO2/MWh — the improvement driven entirely by the wind contribution, as solar has yet to contribute meaningfully at this early hour. With cloud cover at 38% and temperature at 14.7°C generating 3.3 units of heating demand, today's solar window will be the key variable for midday price outcomes.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST half-hour (settlement 21:00 UTC) are pointing to $21.17/MWh, a moderate step-down from current levels, consistent with demand pulling back from the morning peak as commercial load comes online and wind holds. Earlier predispatch runs from 16:00–17:00 AEST were forecasting the same interval at $37–$43/MWh before being revised sharply lower, suggesting dispatchers cleared additional capacity or wind came in stronger than expected. That ~50% downward revision in the forecast within three hours warrants attention — it reflects significant uncertainty in the morning ramp stack. No active market notices are recorded for VIC1 at this time. Grid stress score is elevated at 64.6/100 and price stability is low at 23.6/100, consistent with the volatile overnight session. Flexible load and battery operators should note the repeated negative price windows during the 10:00–18:00 UTC block as a likely pattern to repeat today given similar solar and wind conditions.