regional tas — TAS1
Tasmania is trading at $96.14/MWh as of 16:35 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough where prices briefly went negative (-$15/MWh) during the 11:30–12:10 AEST window on 12 March. The morning ramp has been pronounced — demand climbed from around 730 MW in the early hours to 1,101 MW now, pushing prices through the $96/MWh ceiling that has held firm across the last eight consecutive intervals. Yesterday's equivalent period sat in the $83–88/MWh band, so today's morning peak is running roughly $10–13/MWh above that reference. The price spike to $112.08/MWh at 14:55 AEST on 12 March stands as the session high and signals the market is sensitive to demand surges at the Basslink/hydro dispatch margin.
Generation is 100% renewable. At the latest trading interval (16:30 AEST), hydro is dispatching 324 MW and wind 106 MW, with gas OCGT at 0 MW. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh and has been sustained at that level without interruption across the full 40-hour history in the dataset — renewable penetration holds at 100%. With 6.9°C ambient temperature and a heating demand index of 11.1, demand is being driven by residential and commercial heating load, not cooling. Wind potential is modest at 1.6 (scale implied low), consistent with the 10 km/h observed wind speed and 106 MW wind output, so hydro is carrying the majority of dispatchable load.
Predispatch forecasts for the next trading windows point to prices in the $88–96/MWh range. The most recent PDPASA runs (created 09:20–09:30 AEST on 12 March) peg the next target interval at $96.08/MWh, consistent with current spot. Load window analysis shows the best available price relief in the $84/MWh range, appearing around the 07:30–08:00 AEST window — a $12/MWh saving opportunity versus current levels — suggesting overnight off-peak will again be the lowest-cost scheduling window. No market notices are active for TAS1.
Grid stress is scored at 72.3/100, the most elevated of the available metrics, reflecting tight hydro dispatch headroom against rising morning demand. Price stability scores 23.8/100, consistent with the high intraday volatility observed — swings from -$15/MWh to $114/MWh within a single day. Sustainability managers can note the clean generation profile holds regardless of price level, but traders should watch Basslink import/export direction carefully: any net import from VIC would introduce carbon content and alter the current 0 tCO2/MWh reading.