regional sa — SA1

$30.29/MWh at 16:35 AEST marks the morning peak for SA, with demand at 1,504 MW. This is a significant step up from the overnight and midday sessions — prices were consistently negative through the 19:00–03:00 AEST window yesterday, reaching a floor of -$95.07/MWh at 23:05 AEST as rooftop and utility solar overwhelmed demand. The 24-hour price profile shows the classic SA duck curve in full: deep negatives through the solar window, then a sharp ramp from ~06:00 AEST as solar output collapsed and dispatchable plant stepped in to cover the evening load build.

Wind is carrying the generation stack at 841 MW, with gas CCGT contributing a modest 84 MW — OCGT and solar are both at zero for this interval. That wind-dominant mix is driving carbon intensity down to 0.0523 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 89.33%. Both figures are consistent with the overnight trend, which held renewables above 88% for most of the past 18 hours. The carbon intensity spike to 0.1538 tCO2/MWh around 19:30–20:00 AEST yesterday corresponds to the morning period when gas was required to bridge the pre-solar gap and demand was rising — that window has now passed. Today's low cloud cover (6%) and moderate wind (10.3 km/h, wind potential 1.7) supports continued wind dominance into the morning but limits rooftop solar contribution at this early hour.

Predispatch forecasts for the 07:00 AEST trading period are anchored at $21.17/MWh, down from the current $30.29/MWh, suggesting the morning peak is already softening as demand stabilises. Earlier predispatch runs through the overnight window were pointing to $17–$26/MWh for the same target period, with the most recent revision settling at $21.17/MWh — a modest upward revision relative to the $16.99–$19.40/MWh range seen in earlier runs. Grid stress scores at 72.3 reflect the ramp pressure currently on the system; price stability scores at 23.8 confirm the high intraday volatility seen over the past 24 hours. No market notices are currently active for SA1.

Load shifting into the 07:30–08:30 AEST window remains attractive: predispatch points to sub-$13/MWh conditions as solar begins to build and wind holds, with carbon intensity likely to remain below 0.06 tCO2/MWh. Flexible industrial and C&I loads should target that window. Battery and pumped storage operators who charged through negative-price midday intervals yesterday are well-positioned for the 16:00–18:00 AEST peak cycle today.