regional qld — QLD1

$79.21/MWh at 16:35 AEST on a demand of 6,733 MW — well below yesterday's equivalent period and significantly cheaper than the evening peak that hit $231.71/MWh at multiple intervals between 04:05 and 05:00 AEST. The 24-hour price story in Queensland is sharp: overnight traded in the $52–$77/MWh band, solar suppressed prices to near zero (and briefly negative, reaching -$5.26/MWh) through the 19:00–23:00 AEST solar window, before the evening demand ramp drove a sustained run above $100/MWh from 03:00 AEST through to approximately 07:00 AEST. The current 16:35 read suggests the post-peak retreat is underway, with demand falling from a session high near 9,285 MW.

Generation at the 16:30 AEST interval is dominated by black coal at 3,027 MW, with hydro contributing 86 MW and solar a minimal 8 MW — consistent with late-afternoon sun angle and 70% cloud cover recorded at site. Gas OCGT dispatch is negligible at 0.19 MW, indicating peakers have stepped back following the morning price event. Total metered generation in the snapshot sits well short of total demand, implying significant interstate flows or rooftop solar not captured in the metered mix. Renewable penetration is 2.67% — the day's low, down from a midday peak of 19.09% when large-scale and rooftop solar were at full output.

Carbon intensity is 0.8372 tCO2/MWh — among the highest values in the 48-hour record provided, reflecting the near-total absence of renewable generation in this interval. The carbon history shows intensity dropped as low as 0.7120 tCO2/MWh during peak solar penetration around 20:00 AEST yesterday, a delta of 0.125 tCO2/MWh between solar-rich and coal-heavy dispatch windows. Grid stress score sits at 72.3/100 with price stability at just 23.8/100, corroborating the volatility observed across the trading day. No active market notices are recorded for QLD1 at this time.

Predispatch forecasts for the next evening ramp point to $104.32/MWh, with earlier forecast runs having priced the same target interval as high as $231.71/MWh before being revised down. The convergence toward $104/MWh suggests the market has absorbed uncertainty around that window, but given yesterday's sustained run of $100–$231/MWh from 03:00–07:00 AEST, traders should treat the 02:30–06:00 AEST window tonight as the primary price risk period. Load shifting into the 07:30–13:00 AEST solar window remains the clearest carbon and cost arbitrage opportunity, with near-zero and negative prices historically available during peak irradiance hours on comparable days.