regional nsw — NSW1
$76.99/MWh at 16:30 AEST on a total demand of 8,084 MW. This is broadly in line with overnight and early-morning levels, but sits well below the evening peak that ran through yesterday's equivalent period — prices spiked to $100.01/MWh and above during the 15:00–17:00 AEST window on 12 March, with a session high of $105.79/MWh at 18:30 AEST. The current read represents a modest step-down from the 86–100 $/MWh band that persisted through the pre-dawn hours this morning (01:00–06:00 AEST), suggesting thermal dispatch has eased as demand pulled back from overnight levels. Demand is 8,084 MW against a 24-hour range that touched 9,399 MW at peak.
Black coal dominates the generation stack at 6,413 MW, accounting for roughly 79% of the visible dispatch mix. Solar is contributing 152 MW and wind 91 MW, combining for approximately 3% of the registered generation total — though the broader renewable penetration figure including rooftop PV and imports is reported at 16.79% for the 06:30 UTC interval. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all at zero MW, confirming no peaking plant is online at this reading. Carbon intensity sits at 0.7322 tCO2/MWh, a marginal improvement from the overnight high of 0.8352 tCO2/MWh recorded around 00:30 UTC on 12 March, driven by the modest uptick in solar and wind penetration across the morning. The grid stress score of 64.6 and carbon intensity score of 58 reflect a coal-heavy, moderate-stress operating state.
Predispatch forecasts are consistent and tightly clustered at $84.58–$84.79/MWh for the upcoming evening period, signalling a $7–8/MWh lift from the current spot as demand builds into the Friday evening peak. The trajectory from history is clear: NSW prices reliably ratchet toward the $85–100/MWh band between 16:00 and 21:00 AEST on weekdays, with yesterday's data confirming spikes above $100/MWh are plausible if thermal availability tightens. With gas peakers currently offline and no hydro in the mix, any unexpected demand surge or generation trip will be absorbed entirely by coal margin or interconnector flows. Weather conditions — 17.9°C, 89% cloud cover, near-zero solar potential and minimal wind — eliminate any renewable buffer for the evening ramp.
No active market notices are recorded for NSW1 at this time. Flexibility operators and demand-response participants should target the 06:00–08:00 UTC window (16:00–18:00 AEST) as the highest price-risk interval today, with predispatch pointing firmly to $84–85/MWh and upside tail risk if the coal stack underperforms into the peak.