NEM Overview

Tasmania leads spot prices at $96.14/MWh despite running 100% renewable (hydro 324 MW, wind 106 MW), with the Basslink interconnector (T-V-MNSP1) showing zero flow in both directions — a full outage or constraint that is isolating the island and driving the premium. Queensland is the second-hottest region at $81.10/MWh, with renewable penetration at just 2.67% and carbon intensity at 0.8372 tCO2/MWh — the dirtiest grid on the NEM this interval, running almost entirely on black coal (3,027 MW) with negligible solar (8 MW) and calm winds (3.4 km/h). NSW follows at $76.99/MWh, also coal-dominated at 6,413 MW black coal, 17% renewable penetration, and 0.7322 tCO2/MWh intensity.

Victoria is the standout low-price region at $22.05/MWh, underpinned by 815 MW of wind and 1,930 MW of brown coal, with the VIC1-NSW1 interconnector running at its export limit of 1,026 MW northbound and binding — Victoria is pushing surplus capacity into NSW but cannot move more. South Australia sits at $30.10/MWh with an impressive 89.33% renewable penetration driven by 841 MW of wind, and is net exporting 403 MW to Victoria via the V-SA link. The $54/MWh spread between SA and NSW, with no direct interconnection, means that cheap renewable energy in the south cannot fully arbitrage the coal-heavy east.

NEM-wide renewable penetration scores at 22.4% and grid stress at 64.6/100, reflecting genuine tightness. Carbon intensity score of 58/100 and price stability at 23.6/100 indicate a volatile, fossil-heavy morning across the eastern mainland. No market notices are active. Traders should watch the Basslink situation closely — any restoration of T-V-MNSP1 flows would compress the TAS premium rapidly. Queensland's low renewable output and elevated price make it the primary carbon and cost risk region for the day ahead, particularly if cloud cover (currently 70%) suppresses any solar recovery.