Interconnector Watch

At 16:35 AEST, VIC-NSW is the standout story: binding at its export limit of 1,007 MW north from Victoria into NSW, fully saturating the interconnector's northward capacity. This constraint is directly driving the $54.94/MWh price wedge between VIC1 at $22.05/MWh and NSW1 at $76.99/MWh — cheap Victorian generation cannot clear the border, leaving NSW exposed to higher local marginal costs. QLD1 at $79.21/MWh is broadly aligned with NSW, with QNI carrying only 9.82 MW north into Queensland — well within its 570.66 MW export headroom and non-binding — confirming the NSW-QLD spread of $2.22/MWh is not interconnector-driven but reflects local dispatch conditions in each region.

On the SA corridors, Heywood (V-SA) is exporting 374 MW from SA into Victoria — sitting exactly at its current export limit of -374 MW, though flagged as non-binding. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is also flowing SA-to-VIC at 106.44 MW, again at its export limit of -106.44 MW. Both interconnectors are moving surplus South Australian generation eastward into Victoria, consistent with SA's $30.29/MWh price sitting above VIC's $22.05/MWh — the spread is modest but sufficient to sustain westward arbitrage. Neither link is formally binding, but both are running at their effective export ceilings, leaving no residual SA-to-VIC capacity.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is at zero flow with a non-zero export limit of 125 MW available TAS-to-VIC. With Tasmania at $96.14/MWh — the highest price in the NEM — and Victoria at $22.05/MWh, the absence of southward Basslink flow (VIC exporting to TAS) is notable; the link is neither importing nor exporting, suggesting a scheduling or operational constraint is preventing what would otherwise be a compelling arbitrage opportunity across a $74.09/MWh spread. No constraint notices are active in the dataset, so the cause warrants monitoring. The Marinus Link (N-Q-MNSP1) is carrying 9 MW toward Queensland at near-zero utilisation relative to its 24.05 MW export limit, immaterial to price formation.

No constraint notices are currently active NEM-wide. The primary market impact for traders is the binding VIC-NSW constraint: until it releases, the VIC-NSW spread will persist and NSW/QLD prices will remain decoupled from cheap Victorian supply. Watch for any rebid activity or demand softening in NSW that could ease marginal costs on the northern side of that constraint.