commodity demand vic — VIC1

Victoria is currently drawing 5,536 MW at $22.05/MWh as of 16:35 AEST, sitting near the morning demand peak that has been building steadily since the overnight trough of around 3,800–3,900 MW between 12:30–13:30 AEST. The demand ramp from that trough to present — approximately 1,700 MW over six hours — has driven prices from deeply negative territory (reaching -$38.67/MWh at 22:20 AEST yesterday during peak solar suppression) back into the low-to-mid $20s/MWh range. The correlation is direct and consistent: each step up through the 5,000 MW threshold triggered price spikes into the $30–$31.69/MWh band, visible at 16:00, 16:05, and 16:25 AEST this morning as demand cleared 5,089–5,101 MW.

The overnight demand profile tells a clear structural story. Demand bottomed near 3,800 MW in the early hours (12:35–13:30 AEST), coinciding with the sustained negative pricing period driven by excess renewable generation — wind at 815 MW and solar peaking through the midday window pushed the grid into oversupply against brown coal baseload of 1,930 MW that cannot be rapidly curtailed. As rooftop and utility solar faded from roughly 15:30 AEST onward, net demand recovered sharply, prices flipped positive, and the morning workday ramp compounded the transition. Carbon intensity at 0.74 tCO2/MWh with 39% renewables reflects that brown coal now dominates the marginal stack again, with only 99 MW of gas OCGT online as peaking support.

Today's price outlook hinges on how demand tracks through the Friday afternoon peak window of 17:00–19:30 AEST. Based on yesterday's equivalent period, demand reached 5,600–5,700 MW between 04:30–05:15 UTC (14:30–15:15 AEST), with prices holding in the $19–$22/MWh range but punctuated by $31.69/MWh spikes. At 5,536 MW and rising, Victoria is already within that price-sensitive band. A demand push toward 5,600–5,700 MW — plausible given the 14.7°C temperature and 3.3 heating degree day units indicating space heating load — would sustain prices in the $20–$32/MWh range through the peak. The grid stress score of 72.3 corroborates the tightening supply margin. Demand-side flexibility or load shifting out of the 16:00–19:30 AEST window remains the most actionable lever for large consumers today.