commodity demand tas — TAS1
Tasmania is currently sitting at 1,101 MW at $96.14/MWh as of 16:35 AEST, demand having climbed steadily from an overnight trough of around 723 MW at 11:35 AEST. The demand-price relationship has been mechanical through this morning ramp: as load crossed 880 MW around 14:50 AEST prices broke above $88/MWh, and the sustained push through 1,000 MW from 15:25 AEST locked prices into the $96/MWh band where they have held for the past hour. The prior day's morning peak hit 1,010 MW with prices reaching $114.14/MWh at 16:40 AEST — today's equivalent ramp is tracking at a similar demand level but with prices approximately $18/MWh lower so far, suggesting marginally better supply-side positioning on the Basslink interconnector or hydro dispatch today.
Overnight price volatility was notable and demand-decoupled. Between 11:30 and 12:10 AEST, spot prices printed negative (-$15/MWh) on three intervals despite demand sitting at 723–742 MW — consistent with surplus renewable generation being pushed across Basslink into Victoria. A further cluster of negative and near-zero prints appeared through the 19:05–20:15 AEST window yesterday (demand 830–854 MW), reinforcing that Tasmanian pricing is heavily contingent on Basslink flow direction and mainland surplus conditions, not purely local load.
With demand now at 1,101 MW and still on a morning workday trajectory, the risk window for the next two hours is the pre-noon plateau. Yesterday's data shows demand peaked around 1,050 MW between 20:00–20:15 UTC (06:00–06:15 AEST) before retreating — today's demand is already slightly above that level at the equivalent point in the ramp. Weather data supports continued heating load: 6.9°C ambient with 11.1 heating degree demand and minimal solar potential (0 solar, 1.6 wind potential). The generation mix — hydro 324 MW, wind 106 MW, OCGT zero — confirms gas is not dispatched, meaning any further demand lift will need additional hydro or Basslink imports, both of which carry upward price risk. Forecast RRP is anchored at $96.08/MWh for the period ahead, consistent with the current print.