commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot is at $79.21/MWh with demand at 6,732 MW as of 16:35 AEST — a controlled morning ramp well below yesterday's evening peak of 9,295 MW. The demand-price relationship across the past 48 hours is unambiguous: when demand climbed through the 8,000–9,300 MW range yesterday afternoon and evening, prices escalated sharply from the mid-$50s into the $100–$231/MWh band, with the most volatile pricing — multiple prints at $231.71/MWh — clustered between 19:00 and 20:15 AEST as demand held above 8,500 MW. Conversely, yesterday's solar trough period (09:00–14:00 AEST) saw demand collapse to a sub-5,000 MW floor with prices repeatedly printing at zero or negative, confirming rooftop solar is compressing the midday demand curve to a point where black coal dispatch becomes structurally uneconomic.

Today's demand trajectory is following the same pattern. From a pre-dawn trough near 5,700–5,900 MW, demand has been climbing steadily through the morning, reaching 6,732 MW at the last reading. This is approximately 860 MW below where demand sat at the equivalent time yesterday (Thursday), which is consistent with a Friday load profile — commercial and industrial activity typically tracks lighter on Fridays. That lower base shifts the effective peak demand ceiling down, reducing the probability of hitting the 9,000+ MW levels that drove prices above $200/MWh yesterday evening. Current generation is dominated by black coal at 3,027 MW with solar contributing just 8 MW — renewable penetration at 2.67% and carbon intensity at 0.8372 tCO2/MWh reflect a heavily thermal morning mix.

The afternoon peak window (roughly 15:00–19:00 AEST) remains the key price risk period. Yesterday's data shows prices breaching $100/MWh once demand crossed approximately 8,900 MW, and the most aggressive spikes occurred as demand sustained above 9,000 MW into the early evening. A Friday profile with today's starting trajectory points to a likely peak of 8,200–8,700 MW — materially below yesterday's 9,295 MW ceiling — which would cap afternoon prices in the $80–$120/MWh range under normal supply conditions. Grid stress is already scored at 72.3, signalling the system is not in a loose position; any unexpected generation outage during the 16:00–19:00 AEST demand ramp would compress available headroom quickly and could push prices toward the $200+ range seen at equivalent demand levels yesterday. Demand-side participants with flexibility should treat the 15:30–19:00 AEST window as the primary exposure period today.