Carbon Forecast

As of 06:30 AEST Friday 13 March, the NEM's carbon intensity spans four orders of magnitude across regions. Tasmania is running at 0 tCO2/MWh on 100% renewables (324 MW hydro, 106 MW wind), and SA is essentially clean at 0.05 tCO2/MWh with 89% renewables — 841 MW of wind doing the heavy lifting with only 84 MW of gas CCGT providing firming. At the other extreme, QLD is the dirtiest region on the grid at 0.84 tCO2/MWh, with 3,027 MW of black coal providing virtually all supply and renewables at just 3%. NSW follows at 0.73 tCO2/MWh — 6,413 MW of black coal dominates, with wind and solar contributing a combined 243 MW and only 17% renewable penetration. VIC sits at 0.74 tCO2/MWh; 1,930 MW of brown coal anchors the dispatch stack, partially offset by 815 MW of wind pushing renewables to 39%.

Yesterday's data shows the cleanest windows in VIC and NSW occurred during solar ramp hours — VIC touched 0.50 tCO2/MWh at 58% renewable penetration around 20:30–21:00 AEST, while NSW dipped to 0.73 tCO2/MWh as solar peaked near 19:00 AEST. SA held below 0.10 tCO2/MWh for most of the overnight and morning period, driven by sustained wind output. QLD showed minimal solar uplift even at midday, with intensity only easing to around 0.71 tCO2/MWh — the structural coal base limits how far that region can move without significant new renewable capacity dispatching.

For today's green window outlook: SA and TAS are effectively always-on clean loads with no scheduled deterioration evident. In VIC and NSW, the best carbon windows will open between approximately 09:00 and 15:00 AEST as utility solar ramps — expect VIC intensity to fall toward 0.50–0.55 tCO2/MWh and NSW toward 0.73–0.75 tCO2/MWh during that window, consistent with yesterday's pattern. Both regions tighten again after 17:00 AEST as solar drops and evening demand lifts coal dispatch. QLD offers no meaningful green window today; intensity will remain above 0.71 tCO2/MWh even at solar peak.

Scheduling recommendation: route carbon-sensitive flexible loads — EV charging, electrolysis, data centre batch processing — to SA or TAS now and through the day without restriction. For VIC and NSW loads, target the 10:00–14:00 AEST window for lowest intensity. Avoid QLD scheduling for emissions-sensitive work at any point today. For sustainability managers calculating scope 2 emissions factors, the SA/TAS differential versus QLD is now 0.84 tCO2/MWh — equivalent to the difference between zero-emission and near-worst-case grid power.