regional tas — TAS1
Tasmania spot is at $112.76/MWh as of 16:30 AEST, sitting above the trailing 24-hour average which spent the bulk of Tuesday in the $65–$106/MWh range before ramping sharply through the morning ramp from around 15:50 AEST onwards. The price climbed from $96.08/MWh at 15:05 through $104–$109/MWh in the 16:00–16:25 window before reaching the current print, consistent with a typical morning demand lift — total demand is currently 988.8 MW, down slightly from a 16:25 peak of 1,001.7 MW. The prior overnight trough reached as low as -$15/MWh on three intervals around 11:30–12:10 AEST, reflecting surplus hydro and wind generation displacing any baseload floor.
Generation mix at the 16:30 interval is 100% renewable: hydro contributing 197.38 MW and wind 109.11 MW, with gas OCGT at zero. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh and has been locked at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration across the entire recorded carbon history — a clean slate sustained through the full two-day window with no fossil dispatch observed. This is consistent with Tasmania's structural position as a hydro-dominant island system with meaningful wind capacity.
Predispatch forecasts point to a material price pullback. The most recent forecast vintages price the next available trading windows at $84.01/MWh (07:00 UTC / 17:00 AEST) and $84.03/MWh (07:30 UTC / 17:30 AEST), stepping down further toward $75.04–$75.08/MWh in later intervals as demand eases through mid-morning. This ~$28–$38/MWh retreat from current spot aligns with the typical post-ramp pattern for TAS1. Load optimisation windows across the 17:00–18:30 AEST period are flagged "good" quality with savings of $40–$50/MWh relative to current spot.
No active market notices are recorded for TAS1. The primary watch point for the day is Basslink flow direction and capacity — not captured in this dataset — which governs whether Tasmanian surplus exports suppress local prices further into the shoulder period or whether mainland demand pulls hydro dispatch higher and supports prices above the predispatch mid-$70s/MWh range.