regional qld — QLD1
Queensland spot sits at **$64.35/MWh** as of 16:30 AEST, demand at 6,368 MW — a significant retreat from yesterday's evening peak where prices ran $85–$94/MWh on demand above 8,400 MW. Overnight pricing tracked a clear solar suppression signature: prices collapsed to near zero and negative (as low as -$8.80/MWh) through the 19:15–23:15 AEST window as midday solar flooded the grid, before recovering into the $60–$77/MWh range through the pre-dawn hours as coal reasserted dispatch.
The current generation mix is heavily coal-dominant. Black coal is carrying **2,605 MW**, hydro contributing **86 MW**, solar just **9.5 MW** at this early morning interval, and gas OCGT negligible at **0.2 MW**. Renewable penetration is sitting at just **2.66%** — consistent with overnight carbon history showing renewables bottom out at 2.6–3.2% outside solar hours. Grid carbon intensity is **0.8459 tCO2/MWh**, essentially at its overnight ceiling; for context, the midday solar peak yesterday briefly pushed intensity down to 0.699 tCO2/MWh with renewables reaching ~20%. Sustainability managers should note that QLD remains one of the most carbon-intensive regions in the NEM during overnight and morning periods, with the grid stress score elevated at **72.6/100**.
Predispatch forecasts are unanimous and consistent: prices are expected to lift sharply into the **$91–$93/MWh** range for the 07:00 AEST trading period tonight, with multiple forecast revisions all converging on that band. The trajectory from current $64/MWh reflects the standard QLD evening ramp — solar exits, residential load climbs, and coal/gas peakers set the marginal price. No active market notices are registered for QLD1 at this time.
For traders, the solar suppression window from approximately 09:00–15:00 AEST today should again push prices toward zero or negative as rooftop and utility solar peaks — yesterday's pattern saw sustained negative pricing from 19:30–23:15 UTC (05:30–09:15 AEST). The load shift opportunity is clear: the $91.83/MWh predispatch print for this evening's peak versus sub-zero midday pricing represents a spread of roughly $96/MWh within a single trading day. No constraint notices are active but grid stress at 72.6 warrants attention heading into the evening ramp.