regional nsw — NSW1
NSW1 spot settled at $61.01/MWh at 16:30 AEST, a material step down from yesterday's evening peak which sustained $86.00/MWh across a prolonged block from roughly 03:00–09:10 AEST and reached an intraday high of $90.58/MWh at 03:15 AEST. The 24-hour price profile shows the characteristic overnight thermal-led plateau, a deep midday trough with sustained negative prices bottoming at -$8.50/MWh around 23:15 AEST yesterday as rooftop and utility solar suppressed residual demand, then a sharp ramp through the evening peak before the current moderation as demand eases from its 10,893 MW intraday high back to 8,202 MW.
The 16:30 AEST generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,936 MW, with wind contributing 212 MW and solar 142 MW. Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all at zero. Total renewables sit at 10.44% of the grid mix — well below the midday peak of ~21% observed around 23:00–01:00 AEST when solar was at maximum output. Carbon intensity is 0.7788 tCO2/MWh, up from the daytime low of approximately 0.693 tCO2/MWh, consistent with the post-solar hour shift back toward full coal dominance. With gas peakers offline and hydro absent, the grid is running lean on flexible dispatchable capacity outside of coal.
Predispatch forecasts are uniform at $86.00/MWh targeting the 07:00 AEST half-hour period, signalling the market anticipates prices returning to the elevated evening range as demand climbs back toward the 10,000+ MW zone. This is consistent with yesterday's observed pattern where prices held $86.00/MWh from approximately 03:00 to 05:10 AEST. Traders should note the absence of any fast-start gas capacity in the current dispatch mix — any demand spike or generation trip in the next two to three hours carries asymmetric upside price risk with limited peaking response available. Grid stress is scored at 72.6/100, corroborating tight reserve conditions heading into the evening.
No active market notices are recorded for NSW1 at this time. Sustainability managers should note the renewable window has closed for today — carbon intensity will remain near 0.78–0.84 tCO2/MWh through to tomorrow morning's solar generation. Load scheduling into the negative-price solar trough, which yesterday ran from approximately 18:00 to 21:30 AEST, remains the primary carbon and cost optimisation opportunity for flexible industrial loads in this region.