NEM Overview

Tasmania is the standout at 112.76 $/MWh — the highest spot price in the NEM this interval despite running at 100% renewable penetration (197 MW hydro, 109 MW wind) and modest demand of 989 MW. The T-V-MNSP1 Basslink interconnector is binding at its import limit of -21 MW, effectively capping northward flow into Victoria and isolating Tasmania from cheaper mainland supply. That constraint is the direct driver of the price premium. Queensland is the next hottest at 64.35 $/MWh on 6,368 MW of demand, almost entirely coal-backed with renewable penetration at just 2.66% and carbon intensity of 0.8459 tCO2/MWh — the dirtiest dispatch on the NEM this interval. NSW sits at 61.01 $/MWh with black coal carrying 5,936 MW, renewables at 10.44%, and zero gas or hydro dispatched.

Victoria is the cheapest mainland region at 30.22 $/MWh, with 719 MW of wind suppressing prices despite brown coal running at 2,036 MW and small OCGT support of 78 MW. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is binding at its export limit of 828.54 MW, pushing Victorian surplus north and compressing the Victorian price while keeping NSW elevated. South Australia sits at 38.47 $/MWh with wind covering 543 MW and renewables at 88.86% — carbon intensity of just 0.0546 tCO2/MWh, the cleanest dispatchable region on the mainland. Gas CCGT (83 MW) is providing the only thermal firming; solar is contributing nothing at this 4:30 PM AEST pre-dusk interval.

NEM-wide renewable penetration scores at 25.3% against a grid stress reading of 72.6 — elevated stress reflecting tight interconnector conditions and coal-heavy dispatch in the northern regions. Price stability is weak at 37.3, consistent with the wide spread between Tasmania (112.76 $/MWh) and Victoria (30.22 $/MWh) — an 82.54 $/MWh gap that signals meaningful regional fragmentation. No market notices are active. Carbon intensity score of 60 reflects the split between SA and TAS running clean while QLD and NSW remain firmly coal-dominated heading into the evening ramp.