commodity demand vic — VIC1

$30.22/MWh at 5,487 MW — Victoria is in the morning demand ramp at 16:30 AEST, with price doubling from the $15–22/MWh range seen through the pre-dawn and early morning period as load climbs toward the business-day peak. The demand trajectory is clear: from an overnight trough around 3,800–3,900 MW (01:00–02:00 AEST), load has built steadily through the morning, adding roughly 1,600 MW in five hours. That ramp is now tightening supply margins and pushing prices above the brown coal baseload clearing level, with OCGT capacity (78 MW online) already dispatched to support the stack.

The overnight price pattern was heavily suppressed by renewables, with wind (719 MW currently) and hydro (58 MW) keeping the grid well-supplied during low-demand hours. Prices ran negative across much of the 12:00–02:30 AEST window — reaching as low as -$50.11/MWh around 01:15–01:30 AEST — while demand was below 4,200 MW. The price-demand relationship was stark: every 500 MW demand increment through the overnight period corresponded to a material reduction in negative price depth, and crossing ~4,500 MW pushed prices back into positive territory. Carbon intensity followed the same pattern, falling to 0.48 tCO2/MWh when renewables were carrying 60%+ of load overnight, but rising back to 0.74 tCO2/MWh now as brown coal's 2,036 MW baseload dominates a higher-demand mix with solar output still negligible at 0.1 MW pre-sunrise.

The day-ahead price profile points to an evening peak as the demand risk period. The morning build toward 5,500+ MW is already materialising at $30/MWh, and with solar generation yet to emerge to flatten midday demand, prices are likely to hold in the $20–35/MWh range through the business hours before the critical test arrives at the evening residential ramp. Grid stress is scored at 72.6/100 — elevated but not extreme — consistent with a market that has adequate thermal backing but limited renewable headroom once solar peaks and then drops post-17:00 AEST. Demand-side managers should note the midday solar window (approx. 10:00–14:00 AEST) as the most probable period for price softening, with the pre-dawn negative price opportunity now passed.