commodity demand sa — SA1
SA1 spot is $38.47/MWh at 16:30 AEST with demand at 1,478 MW — a clear morning ramp in progress. Demand has climbed roughly 200 MW over the past hour from a pre-dawn trough near 1,263 MW (04:00 AEST), and prices have responded directly: the $16–24/MWh range that characterised the 14:00–15:00 AEST window gave way to $30–40/MWh as demand crossed the 1,400 MW threshold from around 15:55 AEST onward. The price-demand relationship is tight at current levels, with each 50 MW increment in morning load adding roughly $5–8/MWh to the clearing price.
Overnight price behaviour tells the structural story. Demand bottomed near 225–270 MW during the solar peak window (23:00–00:00 UTC, equivalent to the midday AEST solar maximum on 11 March), with prices repeatedly breaching -$59/MWh as rooftop and utility solar overwhelmed residual load. As solar output faded through the afternoon, demand climbed back through 800 MW by 02:35 AEST and crossed 1,000 MW by 03:15 AEST, with prices recovering to the $20–40/MWh range once thermal and interconnector dispatch was required to cover residual load. Generation mix at the current interval shows 542 MW of wind and 83 MW of gas CCGT, with no solar output yet — carbon intensity sits at 0.0546 tCO2/MWh with 89% renewables.
The demand trajectory today points to a standard autumn shoulder profile. The morning peak is still building and typically reaches 1,600–1,800 MW in SA1 autumn conditions based on yesterday's observed peak of 1,742 MW at 17:00 AEST. If today follows that shape, prices should hold the $35–55/MWh range through the 17:00–19:00 AEST business-day peak window before easing as evening demand softens. Solar generation will compress residual demand again from approximately 08:30–14:30 AEST, likely returning prices to negative or near-zero territory for several hours. The evening transition — when solar drops and demand remains elevated — is the highest price risk window, particularly if wind output softens from its current 543 MW contribution. No market notices are active that would alter this base case.