commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot is at $64.35/MWh with demand sitting at 6,368 MW as of 16:30 AEST — well below the evening peak recorded yesterday. The 24-hour history tells the defining story: demand climbed from a overnight trough near 5,700 MW through to a sustained peak of 8,400–8,430 MW between 04:30 and 05:00 AEST (yesterday evening), where prices locked in the $86–$93/MWh range. That demand-price relationship is tight — every 1,000 MW of demand lift above 7,000 MW correlates with a step-change into the $80–$93/MWh band, driven by black coal's position as the marginal unit at 2,605 MW dispatched this morning against a carbon intensity of 0.8459 tCO2/MWh with renewables contributing just 2.66%.

The midday solar window delivered the sharpest price dislocations in the dataset. As demand compressed to 5,082–5,400 MW between roughly 20:30–23:00 AEST yesterday, prices turned negative, bottoming at -$8.80/MWh at 23:15 AEST. This is the classic Queensland solar oversupply signature — rooftop and utility PV suppressing net demand below the technical minimum of coal dispatch, forcing curtailment bids. Prices snapped back once demand recovered through 5,700–6,000 MW in the early afternoon as solar output faded.

The forward price signal is unambiguous. Forecasts consistently place the evening peak dispatch price in the $89–$93/MWh range, with demand trajectory now rising from the current 6,368 MW. Based on yesterday's pattern, demand will cross 7,000 MW before 02:00 AEST and likely reach 8,000+ MW by 03:30–04:30 AEST. That 1,600 MW demand ramp is the key price trigger — prices are expected to escalate from the current mid-$60s into the $80–$93/MWh band as peaking plant loads and coal runs harder. Grid stress is scored at 72.6/100, reflecting the structural tightness of the evening ramp. Flexibility buyers should act before 01:00 AEST; load that can shift to the solar trough window tomorrow (19:00–22:00 AEST) faces forecast prices below $5/MWh.