Carbon Forecast

NEM carbon intensity at 07:00 AEST sits at a stark four-way split. SA1 is the standout at just 0.055 tCO2/MWh with 89% renewable penetration, driven entirely by 543 MW of wind with gas offline. TAS1 is at 0.000 tCO2/MWh — 100% hydro and wind, 306 MW combined — and has held that position throughout the entire overnight period without interruption. VIC1 is mid-table at 0.737 tCO2/MWh despite 39% renewables (719 MW wind, 58 MW hydro), with 2,036 MW of brown coal dragging the floor hard. NSW1 sits at 0.779 tCO2/MWh on just 10% renewables — 212 MW wind and 142 MW solar against 5,936 MW of black coal with gas fully offline. QLD1 is the dirtiest region at 0.846 tCO2/MWh: 2,605 MW of black coal, 86 MW hydro, and a negligible 10 MW of solar providing a 2.7% renewable share.

The generation mix data (interval 07:00 AEST, 12 March) confirms that coal is structurally setting the marginal emissions rate in three of five regions. NSW1's black coal dominance at nearly 6,000 MW leaves solar and wind as rounding errors. VIC1's brown coal baseload is the key anchor — wind is performing well at 719 MW but cannot displace Latrobe Valley dispatch at this hour. QLD1's solar fleet has barely woken up (10 MW) and won't materially dent coal's share until after 08:30–09:00 AEST, based on yesterday's ramp profile which showed renewables climbing from under 7% pre-dawn to a peak of roughly 20% by 09:00–10:00 AEST before deteriorating again through the afternoon.

Today's green windows are concentrated in SA1 and TAS1 throughout the full 24-hour period — both regions are running near or at zero carbon and that profile is expected to hold given wind resource and no thermal dispatch in SA. For VIC1, the cleanest intervals yesterday ran from approximately 01:30–09:00 AEST (0.48–0.57 tCO2/MWh, 57–61% renewables), and a similar midday window around 14:00–18:00 AEST reached 53–56% renewables. NSW1's best window yesterday was 10:30–14:00 AEST when intensity dipped to 0.69–0.71 tCO2/MWh on 19–21% renewables — modest, but the day's low. QLD1 offered no clean window at all; intensity stayed above 0.70 tCO2/MWh even at solar peak.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling today: route flexible loads to SA1 and TAS1 at any hour. In VIC1, target the 06:00–09:00 AEST window now and again from 14:00–17:00 AEST when wind typically holds above 50% penetration. In NSW1, defer discretionary loads until 10:00–13:00 AEST when solar peaks and intensity is likely to dip toward 0