regional vic — VIC1

-$1.15/MWh. Victoria is in negative price territory at the 16:30 AEST interval, with total demand at 5,462 MW — a continuation of a sustained negative/near-zero price period that has persisted through most of the overnight and morning solar window since approximately 19:00 AEST yesterday. The overnight low reached -$7.99/MWh on multiple intervals. This contrasts sharply with the evening peak yesterday (17:30–18:30 AEST) where prices cleared above $130/MWh with demand touching 7,262 MW, and the morning ramp (15:50–17:00 AEST yesterday) that pushed through $100–$130/MWh territory.

The current generation mix is dominated by wind at 1,771 MW and brown coal at 1,197 MW, with gas OCGT contributing just 9 MW and hydro negligible at 0.02 MW. Solar is zero, consistent with the pre-dawn settlement time. Brown coal's inflexibility is the primary driver of overnight negative prices — baseload cannot back down fast enough when wind output is strong and demand is low. Renewable penetration stands at 20.74% per the latest carbon reading (05:30 AEST), up sharply from a trough of 2.42% recorded at 14:00 AEST yesterday when wind was minimal and brown coal was carrying the bulk of load. Carbon intensity is currently 0.9134 tCO2/MWh — well above clean grid levels but improved from yesterday's daytime peak of 1.19 tCO2/MWh. VIC1 remains one of the NEM's most carbon-intensive regions given its structural brown coal dependency.

Predispatch forecasts point to a decisive price recovery into the evening. The most recent forecast run targets $96.27/MWh for the 07:00 AEST interval tonight, down from earlier runs that had the same window forecast at $118–$158/MWh as the outlook was refined. This downward revision in the forecast likely reflects updated wind and demand expectations. The load window analysis confirms the 07:00–08:30 AEST window as the next high-price exposure period, with prices expected in the $90–$100/MWh range. The 24-hour price arc is textbook Victoria: deep negatives overnight driven by wind surplus against inflexible coal, sharp morning/evening ramps as demand climbs and dispatchable capacity prices up, and a midday trough. Scores reflect the current stress profile — grid stress at 60.5, carbon intensity score 48.2, renewable penetration score 15 — all consistent with a brown coal-heavy overnight mix.

No active market notices are recorded for VIC1. Traders exposed to spot should note the approaching demand ramp: total demand has already lifted from ~4,150 MW at 20:00 AEST to 5,462 MW now and will continue climbing into the morning peak. The VIC-NSW interconnector direction and any SA wind spillover remain the key variables that could compress or extend tonight's high-price window. Sustainability managers should flag that despite the current negative price, the carbon intensity remains above 0.91 tCO2/MWh — wind is partially offsetting coal but not displacing it.