regional tas — TAS1
Tasmania spot is $102.12/MWh at 16:30 AEST, down from the overnight peak of $115.02/MWh recorded around 06:35–07:00 AEST on 10 March and materially below yesterday's sustained $113–115/MWh band. The 24-hour price history shows a classic demand-trough pattern: prices compressed into the $65–75/MWh range through the late morning hours (09:00–11:30 AEST on 10 March) before recovering to the $106–107/MWh corridor through the afternoon and evening as demand climbed from a trough of ~870 MW back toward the current 1,043 MW. Today's current price represents a soft morning re-entry point relative to the past 36-hour average.
The generation mix as of the latest trading interval (16:00 AEST) is almost entirely renewable: hydro is dispatching 232.9 MW and wind 44.4 MW, with gas OCGT at zero output. Total metered generation sits well below total demand of ~1,043 MW, confirming Tasmania is a net importer across Basslink from VIC1 — consistent with the moderate grid stress score of 60.5. Carbon intensity is 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration, a position that has held without interruption across the entire 36-hour carbon history dataset. Gas OCGT has not been called upon at any point in the observable window.
Predispatch forecasts are tightly clustered at $106/MWh for the balance of today, with no meaningful price uplift signalled through the available forward windows. Earlier forecast iterations from the 06:00–07:00 AEST run showed a brief $128/MWh signal for the evening trading period that was subsequently revised down to $106/MWh — indicating the dispatch model has settled on a stable, Basslink-import-supported outcome for tonight's demand ramp. The $104.77/MWh load windows appearing in the 08:00–08:30 AEST UTC block (approx. 18:00–18:30 AEST) represent the best-value scheduled load opportunity flagged for flexibility dispatch.
No active market notices are in place for TAS1. For sustainability managers, Tasmania remains the cleanest region in the NEM at 0 tCO2/MWh. Grid engineers should note the Basslink dependency with demand at 1,043 MW against local generation of ~277 MW — any unplanned Basslink constraint would tighten the region rapidly, particularly into the 17:00–19:00 AEST evening peak where demand has historically run above 1,100–1,160 MW based on yesterday's profile.