regional qld — QLD1
Queensland spot is $66.87/MWh at 16:30 AEST, sitting materially below the evening peak levels recorded yesterday when prices ran $92–$110/MWh through the 06:30–08:10 AEST window. The 24-hour price profile shows a sharp solar trough through mid-morning (touching $0.70–$0.73/MWh between 17:00–19:30 AEST yesterday) before a sustained evening ramp that pushed demand to a session high of 8,378 MW around 04:50 AEST. Current demand of 6,461 MW reflects the typical mid-morning plateau before the afternoon build commences.
The generation mix is heavily coal-dominated. Black coal is running 2,811 MW, hydro contributing just 86 MW, and gas OCGT a negligible 0.2 MW. Solar is showing zero output at this interval, consistent with the pre-dawn trading period of the data snapshot. Renewable penetration is effectively zero at this point in the dispatch cycle — the most recent carbon intensity reading (05:30 AEST yesterday) clocked 0.846 tCO2/MWh with renewables at only 2.65%. The daytime solar window yesterday pushed intensity down to a session low of 0.685 tCO2/MWh with 22% renewable penetration around 22:30 AEST, but Queensland reverts hard to coal once solar drops. Grid stress is scored at 60.5/100 and carbon intensity score sits at 48.2/100, both reflecting the state's continued structural dependence on thermal generation outside solar hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting back into the $96.71/MWh range for the 07:00 AEST trading period, consistent with the evening demand ramp and coal marginal cost stack reasserting. There is no relief from renewables at that hour. The forward load window data indicates fair-quality load shifting opportunities clustered around 07:30–08:00 AEST at prices in the $74–$82/MWh range — below the forecast evening peak but not a compelling signal given the coal-heavy dispatch stack and elevated carbon intensity that persists through those windows.
No active market notices are on file for QLD1 at time of publication. Traders should watch the QNI interconnector flow dynamics as NSW afternoon demand builds — any northward flow constraint will amplify Queensland's price exposure heading into the 17:00–19:00 AEST peak band, where yesterday's data showed prices holding $96–$104/MWh on demand above 8,200 MW.