regional nsw — NSW1
NSW1 spot is at $72.5/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, demand running at 7,911 MW — a meaningful step down from yesterday's evening peak, which hit $144.32/MWh at 16:10 AEST and sustained over $100/MWh for much of the 06:00–08:00 AEST window. The 24-hour average has tracked well above current levels, reflecting that sustained morning peak. Today's pre-dawn period has been comparatively orderly, with prices anchored in the $57–$77/MWh band since around midnight.
The generation mix is overwhelmingly black coal-dominated: 5,107 MW from black coal against just 227 MW wind and 39 MW solar at the last trading interval (17:00 UTC / 03:00 AEST). Hydro, gas CCGT, and gas OCGT are all at zero MW — no peaking plant is being called on at this hour. Total renewable output sits at roughly 266 MW, representing approximately 3.4% of current dispatch, though the latest carbon intensity reading (05:30 AEST) shows renewables at 14% penetration with intensity at 0.7566 tCO2/MWh. That 14% figure reflects solar beginning to contribute earlier in the morning cycle; at the current pre-solar hour the renewable share is materially lower. Carbon intensity has ranged 0.743–0.820 tCO2/MWh over the past 24 hours, with the cleanest periods coinciding with stronger wind and solar contribution around the 17:00–18:00 AEST window yesterday.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices stepping up through the morning peak. The most recent predispatch runs are converging on $98.88/MWh for the evening trading period, up sharply from current spot. Earlier forecast runs had that same target period at $87–$92/MWh, and the upward revision to $98–$99/MWh across the last four consecutive runs signals tightening supply expectations as demand builds into the business day. Load shift windows flag $78/MWh as the most attractive off-peak band around the 08:00–09:00 AEST window, offering savings of approximately $21/MWh versus the forecast peak.
No active market notices are registered for NSW1 at this time. Grid stress is scored at 60.5/100 — elevated but not critical — with renewable penetration scoring just 15/100, consistent with the coal-heavy overnight dispatch. The absence of any gas peaking response this morning is notable; with predispatch flagging a return toward $99/MWh, watch for OCGT activation if demand exceeds forecast during the 08:00–10:00 AEST ramp. Sustainability managers should note that with intensity sitting above 0.75 tCO2/MWh and renewables below 15%, this remains one of the dirtier windows of the NSW dispatch cycle.