NEM Overview

Tasmania leads on price at $102.12/MWh with total demand of just 1,043 MW — a tight regional balance driven by Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) exporting 145 MW to Victoria at its binding export limit, constraining outflow and supporting elevated local prices. NSW is next at $72.50/MWh on 7,912 MW demand, with black coal carrying 5,107 MW — over 64% of regional output — and renewables contributing a thin 14.0% (226 MW wind, 39 MW solar). QLD sits at $66.87/MWh, similarly coal-heavy at 2,812 MW black coal with renewable penetration at just 2.65% and zero solar output at this pre-dawn interval.

The standout condition is the VIC–NSW price spread: Victoria is printing -$1.15/MWh while NSW is at $72.50/MWh, a $73.65/MWh gap. VIC1-NSW1 is flowing 977 MW northbound and is binding at its export limit — the interconnector is fully loaded, yet the spread persists, indicating congestion is capping arbitrage and leaving Victorian surplus generation — 1,771 MW of wind against 5,461 MW demand — unable to fully clear into NSW at price. SA is also negative at -$1.03/MWh, with 854 MW of wind dominating a 1,648 MW demand region. V-S-MNSP1 is binding at -43 MW, locking SA's export pathway to Victoria and compounding the local oversupply.

NEM-wide renewable penetration is low at a composite score of 15/100 per gridIQ's scoring, consistent with a pre-dawn overnight window where solar is zero across all regions. Wind is doing the heavy lifting — 2,851 MW aggregate across VIC, SA, NSW, and TAS — but coal (NSW black coal 5,107 MW, VIC brown coal 1,197 MW, QLD black coal 2,812 MW) dominates the dispatch stack. Carbon intensity is worst in VIC at 0.9134 tCO2/MWh and QLD at 0.846 tCO2/MWh. SA is the cleanest thermal-connected region at 0.4004 tCO2/MWh; TAS is zero-intensity at 100% renewable (hydro 233 MW, wind 44 MW). Grid stress is elevated at 60.5/100 with two binding interconnectors and price stability scoring just 30/100 — watch the VIC-NSW and V-SA-MNSP1 constraints through the morning ramp as solar comes online.

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