Interconnector Watch

At 16:30 AEST on 11 March, two interconnectors are binding and together define the dominant price split in the NEM. VIC-NSW is exporting 976.72 MW from Victoria into NSW at its export limit — fully bound — consistent with the $73.65/MWh spread between NSW ($72.50/MWh) and VIC1 (-$1.15/MWh). Cheap Victorian generation, likely surplus renewables given the negative price, is being pushed north at maximum capacity, yet the constraint is preventing full price convergence. Murraylink is simultaneously binding in both directions at its -43 MW limit, exporting 43 MW from SA into Victoria — a marginal flow that reflects SA's near-zero price (-$1.03/MWh) closely tracking Victoria's, with no material spread to arbitrage beyond the constraint floor.

Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is flowing 144.96 MW from Tasmania into Victoria, sitting at its export limit of -144.96 MW, though technically not flagged as binding. Given Tasmania's price at $102.12/MWh versus Victoria's -$1.15/MWh, this is a notable anomaly — the flow direction runs counter to the price signal, suggesting Basslink's dispatch is constrained by network or operational limits preventing increased northward flow that would otherwise be highly profitable for Tasmanian generators. Traders should note the $103.27/MWh TAS-VIC spread is the widest in the NEM right now and represents a stranded arbitrage opportunity.

QNI is flowing 571.33 MW from QLD into NSW — against the prevailing NSW-QLD price differential of $5.63/MWh in NSW's favour — at 49.6% of its import capacity of 1,151.91 MW, and is not binding. The modest spread and direction suggest QLD dispatch economics are marginally favourable at the generator level despite the headline price difference, with headroom remaining on the link. Heywood is exporting 332.87 MW from SA into Victoria, running at 69.3% of its import capacity of 480.53 MW and not binding — the near-zero SA-VIC price alignment (-$1.03 vs -$1.15/MWh) makes this flow commercially neutral, likely driven by must-run renewable dispatch in SA. No constraint notices are active across the NEM at this interval.