commodity demand vic — VIC1
Victoria is currently sitting at -$1.15/MWh with demand at 5,462 MW as of 16:30 AEST — negative pricing driven by 1,846 MW of wind generation overwhelming subdued morning demand. This follows a sustained negative pricing window that began around 19:15 AEST yesterday, with prices repeatedly touching -$4 to -$8/MWh through the overnight trough as demand bottomed near 3,700–3,900 MW between 21:00 and 23:30 AEST.
The demand-price relationship yesterday traced a textbook diurnal curve. Demand climbed from ~4,150 MW at the overnight low to a morning peak of 7,288 MW at 03:40 AEST, driving prices into the $118–$136/MWh band during 03:25–04:00 AEST. As demand eased through the late afternoon, prices unwound steadily — from $100+/MWh at 05:00 AEST down to the mid-$40s by 06:30 AEST, then into negative territory from ~07:15 AEST as solar ramped and demand continued falling. The sensitivity was clear: every 1,000 MW of demand decay correlated with roughly $60–$80/MWh price compression across the morning descent.
Today's trajectory points to a repeat of yesterday's pattern. Demand is now climbing off the overnight trough — up from ~4,160 MW at 13:00 AEST to 5,462 MW at 16:30 AEST — and the solar contribution will fade rapidly from here. The critical inflection is the evening ramp: if demand tracks yesterday's profile, expect 6,500–7,200 MW through the 03:00–05:00 AEST window tonight, which is where prices broke above $100/MWh yesterday. Forecast RRP for that period sits at $96–$118/MWh based on available forward signals, consistent with that demand level drawing on higher-cost thermal dispatch. Wind at 1,846 MW is currently suppressing prices, but that support diminishes as evening demand absorbs available renewable capacity.
Grid stress is scored at 60.5 with no market notices active. The key demand-side watch for today is the speed of the evening ramp from current 5,462 MW — if demand growth accelerates faster than yesterday's pace, the $120+/MWh threshold seen at 06:10 AEST (demand 5,480 MW, price $130.87/MWh) becomes the relevant price anchor for tonight's peak window.