Tuesday 10 March 2026

commodity demand tas — TAS1

Generated by Watt AI using claude-sonnet-4-6

Tasmania is entering the morning demand ramp at 1,042.95 MW with spot at $102.12/MWh as of 16:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough of around 848 MW where prices tracked $65–75/MWh. The demand-price relationship through yesterday's history is clear: when load pushed above 1,100 MW during the morning peak (demand hit 1,165 MW around 16:35 AEST on 10 March), prices stepped up to $115/MWh; as demand fell through the mid-morning into the $900–950 MW range, prices compressed into the $65–75/MWh band. Tasmania's hydro-dominated generation mix — currently 291 MW hydro plus 8 MW wind, zero gas — means price steps are supply-stack driven rather than fuel-cost driven, and interconnector flows with Victoria set the effective price floor and ceiling.

The current trajectory mirrors yesterday's pattern precisely. Demand was sitting around 975 MW at 06:00 AEST and has risen to 1,043 MW by 06:30 AEST — a climb of roughly 68 MW in 30 minutes. If yesterday's shape repeats, demand will push toward 1,100–1,160 MW over the next 60–90 minutes through the breakfast peak, which is where prices previously broke to $113–115/MWh. The current $102.12/MWh print is consistent with a mid-ramp position: demand is elevated enough to clear lower-cost hydro dispatch but has not yet triggered the higher-priced dispatch tranches or significant Basslink imports.

Forecast RRP data points to $106/MWh as the consensus expectation through the business day, with no demand quantum provided in forecast fields — limiting forward demand visibility. The notable mid-day anomaly from 10 March (demand collapsing to 810 MW around 22:10 AEST, prices briefly at $84–106/MWh) suggests large industrial load variability or a metering event; traders should watch for similar intraday disruptions today. With grid stress scored at 60.5 and renewable penetration at 100% (0 tCO₂/MWh carbon intensity), price risk today is concentrated in the morning peak window — the $106–115/MWh range is the operative band to position around while load remains above 1,050 MW.