commodity demand sa — SA1

-$1.03/MWh at 16:30 AEST with demand at 1,648 MW. South Australia is in the early stages of its morning demand ramp, up from an overnight trough near 300–400 MW mid-yesterday when prices bottomed at -$200/MWh, and wind is carrying the load — 1,113 MW from wind against just 83 MW of gas CCGT with OCGT offline entirely.

Yesterday's demand profile is the template for today. The midday solar trough crushed demand to below 400 MW between 22:00–14:00 UTC (08:00–00:00 AEST), driving sustained negative pricing as wind generation had nowhere to go. The inverse relationship was stark: as demand recovered from ~320 MW toward the evening peak of 1,879 MW at 04:50–05:00 UTC (14:50–15:00 AEST), prices scaled from -$196/MWh through to $138/MWh. The evening ramp between 17:00–18:30 AEST AEST (07:00–08:30 UTC) was the sharpest pricing transition of the day, with prices compressing from sub-$40/MWh to $138/MWh as demand surged 600 MW in under 90 minutes and solar output collapsed.

Today's trajectory mirrors that pattern. Demand is currently 1,648 MW and climbing — up from 1,521 MW at 16:00 AEST and 1,395 MW at 15:00 AEST. The morning demand build is well underway. Based on yesterday, demand will continue rising toward a breakfast peak of approximately 1,700–1,800 MW before the solar-driven midday suppression kicks in around 09:00–10:00 AEST, where prices can be expected to go deeply negative again, potentially reaching -$100/MWh or below if wind output holds above 1,000 MW.

The afternoon price risk window is 16:30–19:30 AEST, when demand recovers from the solar trough and generators must fill the gap rapidly. Yesterday, this period saw prices spike to $497/MWh at 06:15 UTC (16:15 AEST) on a demand of just 1,323 MW — the price spike was supply-driven, not demand-driven, indicating tight dispatchable capacity at that transition point. Grid stress is scored at 60.5/100, consistent with that vulnerability. Traders with flexible load should target the 09:00–15:00 AEST window for negative-price consumption and hedge exposure to the 16:00–18:00 AEST ramp.