commodity demand qld — QLD1

Queensland spot is at $66.87/MWh with demand sitting at 6,461 MW as of 16:30 AEST — a moderate morning level consistent with the post-overnight ramp. The demand-price relationship over the past 48 hours is clear: when Queensland demand peaked near 8,378 MW yesterday evening (around 04:50 AEST), prices held firm in the $96–$104/MWh band, and the earlier solar-driven midday trough — demand dropping to around 5,194 MW at 20:35 AEST yesterday — pushed prices as low as $0.70–$12/MWh as rooftop and utility solar saturated the market. That ~3,200 MW demand swing between the solar minimum and the evening peak is the key price driver shaping today's outlook.

Demand has been climbing steadily since the overnight low of approximately 5,750 MW (around 12:00–13:00 AEST), tracking the typical morning ramp as commercial and industrial load picks up. Prices have responded proportionally, rising from the low-$50s/MWh range through the early hours to the current mid-$60s/MWh. Black coal at 2,615 MW dominates the current generation mix, with solar contributing just 15 MW at this pre-peak morning interval, confirming the grid remains thermally anchored until solar output builds through mid-morning.

The day's price trajectory is predictable from the demand curve: expect prices to soften toward the $20–$40/MWh range between roughly 10:00–14:00 AEST as solar penetration peaks and net demand compresses, then rebound sharply into the 16:00–20:00 AEST evening peak. Yesterday's equivalent period saw demand push above 8,300 MW with sustained prices of $96–$104/MWh. Forward forecasts peg the evening period in the $86–$97/MWh range, broadly consistent with that pattern. Carbon intensity at 0.846 tCO2/MWh reflects the coal-heavy overnight and morning mix; that figure will ease materially through the solar window before rising again post-sunset as gas and coal carry the evening peak load.