Carbon Forecast

Victoria is the dirtiest grid on the NEM right now at 0.91 tCO2/MWh with just 21% renewables, driven entirely by 1,184 MW of brown coal baseload and negligible solar or hydro contribution. Queensland sits close behind at 0.85 tCO2/MWh with 2,615 MW of black coal dominating and renewables at only 3% — solar ramp has not yet begun at the 06:30 AEST generation snapshot. NSW is marginally cleaner at 0.76 tCO2/MWh but still 86% fossil-dependent, with 5,242 MW of black coal and wind contributing just 214 MW. The NEM's dirtiest corridor this morning is the QLD-VIC-NSW triangle, all sitting in the 0.76–0.91 tCO2/MWh band.

South Australia is the standout at 0.40 tCO2/MWh with 1,113 MW of wind and gas backup at 83 MW CCGT — but notably solar is currently at zero, meaning the real green window hasn't opened yet. Yesterday's SA data shows intensity bottoming out at 0.10 tCO2/MWh between 09:30–11:30 AEST when renewables hit 74–80%, and a similar solar-plus-wind window is expected again today from approximately 08:00–14:00 AEST. Tasmania remains at 0.00 tCO2/MWh and 100% renewable on hydro and wind, consistent across all 42 intervals in the dataset — it is the only region where carbon-sensitive loads can run around the clock without penalty.

The trajectory today follows a predictable solar curve. NSW and QLD will see intensity ease through the 08:00–13:00 AEST window as utility solar ramps — yesterday QLD touched 0.68 tCO2/MWh at 12:30 AEST (22% renewables) before climbing back above 0.84 tCO2/MWh post-sunset. VIC offers the weakest solar relief given its brown coal floor; intensity yesterday only compressed to 1.00 tCO2/MWh at its midday best, and wind at 1,846 MW is the sole meaningful clean contributor. Evening periods across all mainland regions deteriorate sharply once solar drops — QLD was back at 0.85 tCO2/MWh by 18:30 AEST yesterday.

For carbon-sensitive load scheduling: prioritise TAS1 all day with zero emissions exposure. SA1 between 08:30–14:00 AEST offers the best mainland green window, likely sub-0.15 tCO2/MWh if wind holds at current levels and solar replicates yesterday's 64–80% renewable penetration. NSW and QLD loads are best shifted to the 09:00–13:00 AEST solar peak window where intensity can compress to 0.70–0.74 tCO2/MWh. Avoid scheduling discretionary loads in VIC and QLD after 17:00 AEST — both regions were above 0.84 tCO2/MWh within two hours of sunset yesterday, and there is no indication today's evening mix will differ materially.