regional vic — VIC1

$125.44/MWh is the current VIC1 spot price as of 16:25 AEST, sitting well above the overnight baseload range of $60–$75/MWh that characterised most of the past 24 hours. The price surge began around 15:55 AEST yesterday and has been climbing steadily through the morning peak, with the last three intervals printing $105.89, $122.27, $130.87, $105.00, $106.21, and $125.44/MWh respectively. Demand has risen sharply to 5,638 MW, consistent with a typical Tuesday morning ramp. No market notices are active for this region.

The generation mix at the 16:00 UTC trading interval is heavily brown-coal dominant: brown coal 2,212 MW, gas OCGT 100.6 MW, hydro 43.4 MW, wind 22.8 MW, solar 0 MW, gas CCGT 0 MW. Total dispatchable supply from that snapshot is approximately 2,379 MW from local plant, with the balance of the 5,638 MW demand being met via interconnector imports — likely from NSW and SA. Renewable penetration is a thin 23.38% per the latest carbon reading, driven almost entirely by hydro and residual wind. Solar is contributing nothing at this pre-dawn hour. The overnight trough in renewables hit 6.4% around 13:30–14:00 UTC, underscoring Victoria's continued structural reliance on brown coal for overnight and early-morning supply.

Carbon intensity is 0.9264 tCO2/MWh — elevated but off the overnight peak of 1.1186 tCO2/MWh reached around 13:30 UTC when renewables were minimal and brown coal carried the bulk of load. Intensity has been declining since then as demand-side solar and wind output lifted the renewable share from single digits back toward the low-20s. Sustainability managers should note the grid scores reflect this: renewable penetration score 16.1/100, carbon intensity score 52.4/100, grid stress 72.7/100 — all signalling a strained, high-emission dispatch profile for this morning peak.

Predispatch forecasts for the next trading window point to $91.36/MWh, a meaningful step down from the current $125.44/MWh, suggesting the market expects demand to ease as the morning peak plateaus. Load-shifting windows flagged as "good" quality appear from 07:30–08:30 AEST (UTC 21:30–22:00) at prices in the $56.50/MWh range, offering $34.86/MWh savings against the reference price — these align with the solar generation shoulder when rooftop PV begins contributing. Flexible industrial loads and battery operators should target that window. No market notices are active in VIC1 at time of writing.