regional tas — TAS1

Tasmania spot price sits at **$106.48/MWh** as of 16:25 AEST, consistent with the dominant trading range over the past 48 hours. The price band has been remarkably tight — the vast majority of intervals settled between $104.77 and $107.87/MWh — with two notable exceptions: a brief spike to $160.86/MWh at 04:00 AEST yesterday and a transient $115.08/MWh print at 15:05 AEST. Outside those outliers, TAS1 has traded with unusual stability, suggesting Basslink flows and hydro dispatch have been closely matched to demand, which is currently running at 1,156.93 MW and climbing through the morning ramp.

Generation is **100% hydro** at 560.68 MW of reported scheduled output, with wind and gas OCGT both contributing 0 MW. Carbon intensity is **0 tCO2/MWh** with 100% renewable penetration — a position that has held continuously across every recorded interval in the dataset. The gap between reported hydro generation (560.68 MW) and total demand (1,156.93 MW) indicates substantial Basslink import from Victoria is currently supplementing local supply, which is a key vulnerability — TAS1 pricing remains exposed to VIC1 conditions and any interconnector constraints.

Predispatch forecasts point to a modest upward shift, with prices expected in the **$115.02/MWh** range through the evening peak period. The loadwindow analysis confirms this trajectory, with the best buying opportunities concentrated in the $106.04–$106.51/MWh band in overnight and early morning windows. No active market notices are recorded for TAS1 at this time.

Grid stress is scored at **72.7/100** — elevated despite the clean generation profile, which points to interconnector dependency and demand growth as the primary risk vectors today. With no gas OCGT online and wind at zero, any Basslink derating or unplanned outage would immediately pressure local hydro reserves and push prices sharply higher. Traders with TAS1 exposure should monitor interconnector limits closely through the evening peak.