regional sa — SA1

SA1 spot is at $227.32/MWh as of 16:25 AEST, a sharp escalation from the early-morning pre-dawn range of $138–$170/MWh and a dramatic reversal from yesterday's midday solar flush, which drove prices deep negative — bottoming at -$306.50/MWh around 22:45 AEST yesterday. The current dispatch interval reflects morning demand ramp pressure with total regional demand at 1,361.71 MW and climbing. Earlier intervals today saw a price spike to $497.50/MWh at 16:15 AEST, with the last three intervals printing $299.44, $497.50, $299.44, and $227.32/MWh — indicating a volatile but easing market following a supply tightness event at the morning peak.

Generation mix at the 16:30 AEST dispatch interval shows gas-dominant output: CCGT contributing 359.18 MW and OCGT 190.94 MW, totalling 550.12 MW of gas generation. Wind is providing 276.41 MW, while solar has fallen to 0 MW — consistent with pre-sunrise conditions. Total dispatchable generation visible in the mix is approximately 826.53 MW against 1,361.71 MW demand, with the balance sourced via Heywood and Murraylink interconnector imports from VIC. Renewable penetration stands at 33.91% with carbon intensity at 0.3506 tCO2/MWh as of the latest 30-minute interval — significantly dirtier than yesterday afternoon's 0.0645–0.0675 tCO2/MWh when wind was carrying 86%+ of load.

Predispatch forecasts for today's evening period are pegging prices in the $82–$130/MWh range from 07:00 AEST onwards, with the most recent pre-dispatch run pointing to $115.66/MWh for the 07:00 AEST trading interval. Load window analysis rates the 08:00–09:30 AEST window as "excellent" quality, with indicative prices in the $65–$93/MWh range — well below current spot. No active market notices are recorded for SA1 at this time.

Carbon intensity will trend lower as solar generation ramps through the morning, with renewables likely recovering toward the 60–75% penetration range seen in yesterday's afternoon intervals (0.1266–0.1826 tCO2/MWh). Grid stress is scored at 72.7/100 — elevated, consistent with the overnight-to-morning transition when gas is carrying near-maximum baseload and interconnector flows are under pressure. Sustainability managers should flag the current 0.3506 tCO2/MWh intensity as a temporary peak; the solar window from approximately 09:00–15:00 AEST will restore the region's typical low-carbon midday profile.