regional qld — QLD1
$124.30/MWh is the current QLD1 spot price as of 16:25 AEST, sitting well above the overnight trough of $62.73/MWh and continuing a sustained morning ramp that began around 15:30 AEST. Yesterday's equivalent morning peak reached similar territory, with prices consistently clearing $100/MWh through the 06:10–06:30 UTC window — this is a repeat pattern driven by the pre-solar demand surge. Total demand at the latest interval is 6,558 MW, which is moderate by QLD standards and well below yesterday's peak of ~8,085 MW recorded around 04:30 UTC.
The generation mix is heavily coal-dominant. Black coal is carrying 2,707.65 MW — the overwhelming majority of supply — with hydro contributing 86.13 MW and solar a negligible 8.51 MW at this early morning hour. Gas OCGT output is near zero at 0.20 MW. Renewable penetration is just 2.98%, consistent with the pre-dawn period and in line with the overnight carbon history floor of ~3%. As solar generation builds through the morning, renewable share peaked at 11.66% yesterday around 10:30 UTC; expect a similar trajectory today from approximately 09:00 AEST onward. Carbon intensity is 0.842 tCO2/MWh — near the top of the daily range observed over the past 36 hours (0.790–0.853 tCO2/MWh). The gridIQ composite score reflects the strain: grid stress at 72.7, carbon intensity score 52.4, and renewable penetration score just 16.1.
Forward pricing from predispatch points to meaningful relief as the morning progresses. The most recent predispatch run forecasts $105.30/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, down from current levels but still elevated. Load window data shows prices easing to the $76–$79/MWh band through the 07:00–08:30 AEST period, with the best load-shifting windows flagged as "good" quality at $63.83–$71.71/MWh around the 08:00–09:00 AEST period — consistent with yesterday's solar-driven price suppression that pulled prices to $44.95/MWh at the 10:15–10:50 AEST trough. Flexibility holders should target the 08:00–10:30 AEST window for discretionary load execution.
No active market notices are in place for QLD1. The key watch for today is whether solar output suppresses prices as aggressively as Monday — yesterday saw a ~55% price drop from the morning peak within four hours. With the scores dataset flagging market conditions at just 41.7 out of 100, the structural coal dependency and minimal overnight renewable contribution remain the defining characteristics of this region's dispatch profile.